JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — This has already been the most turbulent college basketball season in history. There’s a genuine fear that COVID-19 will give new meaning to March Madness if, at any point, it forces a team to exit the NCAA tournament.
The last thing anyone wants for one of America’s best sporting events is to have the coronavirus become a bracket buster. Really, I make enough bad selections every year to destroy my own bracket without COVID-19 ambushing a viable Final Four candidate.
In 2019, after correctly identifying seven NCAA champions in my 12 previous annual brackets, my prediction game went south. I hit on only one Final Four team, third-seeded Texas Tech, while picking the wrong ACC teams (Duke, North Carolina) to reach the title game and having eventual national champion Virginia exiting in the Elite Eight. Since 2007, my winning percentage on Final Four picks is .384 (20 of 52), the equivalent of an average 3-point shooter.
So let that be a reminder that this entertainment-purposes-only bracket can be about as reliable as Indiana finding the next Bob Knight. Who, by the way, should get back in the spotlight at this year’s Final Four if my tournament projection is correct (more on that later).
Looking at the Cinderella portion of my bracket, I only took one double-digit seed, No. 11 Syracuse, to get to the Sweet 16. History influenced me there. The last two times the Orangemen were assigned a double-digit seed, Jim Boeheim’s club went to the Sweet 16 (2018) as a No. 11 seed out of the First Four group and made the Final Four (2016) as a No. 10 seed.
Two of my five other double-digit seeds — No. 12 Winthrop to upset Villanova and No. 13 Ohio to knock off Virginia — were heavily impacted by their potential victims either losing a significant player to a season-ending injury (the Wildcats’ Collin Gillespie) or Virginia having COVID-19 interruptions.
Michigan State, a No. 11 seed, righted the ship in time with late-season wins over a pair of NCAA top seeds, Michigan and Illinois, plus defeated second-seeded Ohio State. So picking accomplished coach Tom Izzo to beat UCLA in a First Four game and then BYU in the first round doesn’t seem like a big stretch. My biggest upset, No. 14 Morehead State over third-seeded West Virginia, is a total hunch.
Michigan, in the most unpredictable East region, has lost some of its juice after an 18-1 start to the season. Plus, the Wolverines are dealing with a foot injury to sharpshooter Isaiah Livers, whose status for the tournament remains uncertain.
The East appears to have a smaller gap separating the top four seeds. SEC champion Alabama (No. 2), Texas (No. 3) and Florida State (No. 4) are all capable of sabotaging Michigan’s path to the Final Four on the second weekend, and a potential second-round matchup with eighth-seeded LSU is not exactly a gimme putt.
How far can FSU go?
FSU (16-6) is going to be a tough out for anybody because of their depth, athleticism and ability to pose matchup problems. The ‘Noles have an explosive scorer in freshman Scottie Barnes, an indispensable presence in 6-foot-8 senior RaiQuan Gray and guard M.J. Walker as another go-to threat.
Nobody would be surprised to see Leonard Hamilton’s team have a deep NCAA run. However, one concern is hard to ignore: FSU had two high-stakes games the past two weeks — one to win the ACC regular season at Notre Dame and another to capture the tournament championship against Georgia Tech — and never took control at any point in those matchups.
That gives me pause about the Seminoles reaching their first Final Four since coach Hugh Durham took them to the NCAA finals in 1972. They should be able to get to a third consecutive Sweet 16 against Michigan, which eliminated FSU 58-54 in the same round in 2018.
In a coin-flip matchup, the Wolverines again deny the ‘Noles a shot at the Elite Eight in my bracket. However, the dream of Michigan coach Juwan Howard to deliver a national championship to his alma mater will have to wait. Under second-year Alabama coach Nate Oates, the Crimson Tide has dominated the SEC behind conference Player of the Year Herbert Jones.
Look for the country’s preeminent football program to make its first Sweet 16 in 30 years, and to keep marching. I’ve got ‘Bama reaching an Elite Eight and then a Final Four for the first time in school history.
