Two years ago, before the start of the last NCAA Tournament, we presented a system that could help narrow down the bracket, using advanced stats from recent seasons.
It worked — barely.
Virginia, one of six teams that passed all of our statistical tests, did in fact win the national championship. All it took was a last-second shot to force overtime in the Elite Eight, three last-second free throws in the semifinal and another late 3-pointer that forced OT in the title game.
Never a doubt.
We could quit while we’re ahead, but where’s the fun in that? Instead, it’s time to bring back the same system for another attempt to narrow the field.
To review: This method uses six stats in which every champion since 2008 has ranked in the top half of Division I. All these stats are available at barttorvik.com — and we’ll use that information to pare down this year’s contenders.
Stat No. 1: Overall Ranking.
T-Rank is the main measure of overall team strength at barttorvik.com. Every champ since 2008 was in the top 23 in this ranking, based on the team’s performance prior to the NCAAs.
That gives us the following initial list of title contenders: Gonzaga, Houston, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, Alabama, Florida State, San Diego State, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Loyola Chicago, Villanova, Virginia, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, Southern California, West Virginia, Colorado, Creighton and Arkansas.
Stat No. 2: Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
A stat based on points per 100 possessions, adjusted to account for opponent strength. The last 12 national champs all ranked in the top 55.
That means two teams are eliminated from this year’s list: Loyola Chicago (ranked 65th in this stat) and Tennessee (56th).
Stat No. 3: Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Each national champ in our sample was in the top 40, so that’s the cutoff point. That takes out several teams, including a No. 1 seed.
Baylor (47th), Iowa (61st), Ohio State (78th), Villanova (72nd), West Virginia (60th) and Creighton (42nd) all fall out of consideration.
