This is the season of baseball players changing teams and one of the sports more valuable trade assets is Royals property. Done right, they could push some other contender toward a championship while bolstering their own chances in the future. A win-win.
The reasons they probably wont do that tell the story of who the Royals are, who they see themselves to be, and the foundation of their plan to win another championship.
Whit Merrifield led all major-leaguers in hits and steals while playing five defensive positions. He has four years of club control remaining, and in 2019 will make slightly more than the league minimum salary.
He is productive, cheap, versatile, athletic, and could instantly fit toward the top of a championship clubs order.
Internally, the Royals believe the core of their next contender will be in the big leagues by 2021, when Merrifield will be 32. Viewed coldly as return on investment, now is the best time to trade him. The younger talent acquired would be maturing by 2021, when Merrifield is likely to be fading.
Dayton Moore, the architect and foreman of the Royals last world champion, knows that Merrifield probably will never be more valuable in the eyes of other teams he will never be younger, never be cheaper, and never offer more years of club control.
All of that is true, and so is this: Moore is unlikely to trade. Three primary considerations stand above the others, each a mix of practicality, emotion, and commitment to slow cook the next championship core.
No. 1: Who is the right trade partner?
The trade of Zack Greinke after the 2010 season is the Royals closest comparison to what a trade of Merrifield would look like now.
There are significant differences. Greinke was four years younger and better than Merrifield, who is cheaper and with two more years of club control. But, as a crude instrument, the comparison works.
Back then, the Royals sent Greinke to Milwaukee for a package headlined by Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar. They also received Jake Odorizzi, who became a key piece in the trade that brought James Shields and Wade Davis. Nothing in baseball is linear, but it is highly unlikely the Royals could have won the 2015 World Series without that specific trade.
But getting there was a hot mess. Greinke had made his desire for a trade known, so the Royals cycled through many conversations. They were close with a few, most notably the Nationals, who agreed on a package headlined by Jordan Zimmerman and Derek Norris. The deal was dependent on the Nationals signing Greinke to an extension. Instead, he invoked his no-trade clause.
The Royals were fortunate to find the Brewers, who fit the general profile of a partner: deep in prospect depth who can lose a few pieces without compromising immediate success.
The positions had to line up, too, and here its worth noting that part of why the Brewers were willing to deal Cain is they had Carlos Gomez and Nyjer Morgan in center.
The Braves, Red Sox, Rays, Yankees and Dodgers are potential fits for the Royals and Merrifield in different ways.
