Mathematicians have generally held that the odds of filling out a perfect mens NCAA Tournament bracket are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to one.
The 10 bracket tips below might not allow you to overcome the 9.2 quintillion-to-one odds against achieving perfection but they could help you win your office pool:
1.) The bracket line where you are most likely to find upsets.
In recent years, the famous 12 over 5 upset line has been superseded.
While 12 seeds are a respectable 11-17 vs. No. 5s since 2012, that pales in comparison to what No. 11 seeds have compiled vs. No. 6s.
Over the same time frame, No. 11s are 15-13 vs. No. 6s.
2.) Identifying teams vulnerable to a round of 64 upset via the line.
According to the internet sports gaming site oddsshark.com, teams favored by five points or more have won 85.07 percent of their round of 64 games since 2009.
Conversely, teams favored by fewer than five points have won only 53.31 percent of their first-round games.
3.) Identifying teams vulnerable to a round of 64 upset via the stats.
The advanced-metrics set identifies teams with a higher than average turnover rate, poor 3-point shooting percentage and/or which average taking fewer free throws a game than their opponents are your prime upset candidates.
4.) Absent a compelling belief based on matchups, there is no reason to pick any team seeded lower than 12 to win in the round of 64.
Since 2012, No. 1 seeds are 27-1 (looking at you, Virginia) against No. 16s; No. 2 seeds are 24-4 vs. No. 15s; No. 3s are 23-5 vs. No. 14s; and No. 4 seeds are 23-5 against No. 13s.
5.) Where to find round of 32 upsets.
Over the past seven editions of March Madness, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds have been surprisingly vulnerable in the second game of the first weekend. Only 15 of 28 No. 2 seeds and the same number of No. 3 Mathematicians have generally held that the odds of filling out a perfect mens NCAA Tournament bracket are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to one.
The 10 bracket tips below might not allow you to overcome the 9.2 quintillion-to-one odds against achieving perfection but they could help you win your office pool:
1.) The bracket line where you are most likely to find upsets.
