The most anticipated Kansas City Chiefs team in decades, and maybe ever, will assemble for training camp in less than two weeks. The success or failure will depend on a million variables.
Some, like Tyreek Hills availability, are out of the teams control. Others, like the health of Patrick Mahomes, are subject to whims of the football gods.
The plan here today, and throughout the days remaining before the 2019 Chiefs officially begin their season in Jacksonville, is to examine the factors within their control.
The Chiefs hopes have largely been framed as so: Can a wretched defense get the hell out of the way enough for Mahomes and coach Andy Reid to boss around the league again?
Well talk plenty about the defense, even some in this column, but first, another way of viewing this: Can the offense possibly repeat what was basically a season-long magic carpet ride to within a coin flip of the Super Bowl?
Is statistical regression after a record-setting season inevitable, and if so, what can the Chiefs do to minimize the effect?
Lets do this in four parts.
1. The gauntlet of history.
The Chiefs scored 565 points last year, the third-highest total in league history. Of the NFLs all-time 10 highest-scoring teams before last season, only the New England Patriots repeated. They actually have three straight seasons 2010-12 in the all-time top 10.
Of the other seven, each scored at least 86 fewer points the next season and averaged 122 fewer. Thats more than a touchdown per game.
Beginning in 2008, 10 teams have been first or second in both yards and points. Only the 2008 New Orleans Saints repeated the feat. Five of the 10 fell out of the top five in one or both categories the next season. Four fell out in both categories.
Mahomes led the NFL with 50 touchdown passes and an 8.6% TD rate. Since 2012, every quarterback to lead the league in TD rate threw at least 12 fewer touchdowns the next season.
Heres another way to do it. Mahomes completed the 11th season in NFL history of at least 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns. Three missed significant chunks of their follow-up season with injury, so lets throw them out.
The remaining seven averaged 463 fewer passing yards and 13 fewer touchdowns. Whats more, none improved upon either number. With the exception of Matthew Stafford, these are all legends, too: Peyton Manning (twice), Drew Brees (twice), Aaron Rodgers and Dan Marino. Brees is the only quarterback to top 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns in consecutive seasons.
The explanations are varied, starting with the obvious: These are outlier seasons. By definition, of course they are difficult to repeat, and Mahomes standard is even more ridiculous. Manning is the only other man to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in a season.
