It was Hall of Fame induction weekend a couple of weeks ago, and The Los Angeles Times’ Hall of Fame baseball writer reached out with a provocative question.
“Is Mike Trout still an automatic Hall of Famer?” Ross Newhan asked me.
Five years ago, you would have nodded so fast you might have resembled a bobblehead doll. On Thursday, when the Angels announced Trout would finish the season on the injured list because of a second meniscus tear in his left knee, you at least had to wonder.
Trout played 29 games this season. He has not played even 120 games since 2019. Over the last four seasons, he has missed more games than he has played. His number of games played in the second half: zero, 40, one, zero.
He has six years left on his contract, raising the prospect of his decorated career ending with a decade of injury-shortened seasons.
If the Hall of Fame is all about putting up the numbers, what might Trout’s numbers look like when his career is done?
I asked Dan Szymborski at Fangraphs to run projections for the rest of Trout’s career. The result: Trout is not projected to play 100 games or hit 20 home runs in a season ever again, and he is not projected as an above-average hitter beyond 2028.
Trout turns 33 next week. He is still an effective hitter when he plays, so if he can play more than his recent history would indicate, he can outdo the projections.
This impacts the Angels, of course, because Trout may not be the star of their next good team. If they can develop young anchors beyond shortstop Zach Neto and catcher Logan O’Hoppe over the next two years, then they can emerge as a contender by spending on free agents after the 2026 season, when third baseman Anthony Rendon’s contract runs out. Trout still could be a valuable player then, if not the marquee one.
However, for Hall of Fame purposes, this impacts Trout.
If Trout had stayed healthy and productive at the pace of his elite years of 2012-19, then by the time his contract expired, he would have 3,000 hits and 647 home runs. The latter number would have placed him seventh on the all-time list, just behind Willie Mays.
According to Szymborski’s projections, Trout would finish with 445 home runs and 2,012 hits — and that includes two seasons beyond the expiration of his contract.
Szymborski did not believe the end of Trout’s career would have any impact on his selection to the Hall of Fame.
“He already passed the bus test for me years ago,” Szymborski said.
Bus test?
