Low expectations rarely disappoint.
That’s not to say your favorite team will fail to live up to the promise that comes with landing a spot in The Associated Press preseason Top 25 college football poll presented by Regions Bank that was released Monday.
But numbers suggest it is best to sprinkle a healthy amount of caution on that optimism as you gear up for the 2022 season.
Lear year was especially volatile for the Top 25, with 14 teams that started the season ranked finishing unranked. From 2010-20, on average, 9.5 teams that appeared in the preseason Top 25 finished unranked — about 38% of the picks. During that time, the most was 12 in 2010.
In the preseason top 10 last year, three teams (Texas A&M, Iowa State and North Carolina) failed to make it into the final poll. That’s double the average (1.5) from 2010-2020.
Time to temper expectations for the preseason Top 25 this season — except for Alabama.
No. 1 Alabama (13-2 last season)
Opener: vs. Utah State, Sept. 3.
Reality check: The surest bet in sports is the Crimson Tide, which has only missed the playoff once. Alabama has not finished outside the top 10 since 2007, coach Nick Saban’s first season. No reason to think it’s happening this season.
No. 2 Ohio State (11-2)
Opener: vs. No. 5 Notre Dame, Sept. 3.
Reality check: The Buckeyes hired former Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to fix a defense that was badly exposed against their best opponents. QB C.J. Stroud, WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba and a potent offense probably make Ohio State flop-proof, though.
No. 3 Georgia (14-1)
Opener: vs. No. 11 Oregon in Atlanta, Sept. 3.
Reality check: Most of last season’s all-time great defense is now in the NFL. The Bulldogs are too talented to take a big step backward, but assuming Alabama-level consistency from any team is a lot to ask.
No. 4 Clemson (10-3)
Opener: vs. Georgia Tech in Atlanta, Sept. 5.
Reality check: Coming off their first non-ACC championship season in seven years, the Tigers are maybe the most intriguing team in the country. Clemson has two new coordinators and a former five-star quarterback (D.J. Uiagalelei) trying to recover from a puzzlingly poor season. Voters are leaning toward last season being a blip for Dabo Swinney’s team and not the start of a trend.
No. 5 Notre Dame (11-2)
Opener: at No. 2 Ohio State, Sept. 3.
Reality check: The Fighting Irish have established lofty standards with five straight 10-win seasons, but coach Marcus Freeman’s first season as Brian Kelly’s replacement has a lot of transition-year vibes.
No. 6 Texas A&M (8-4)
Opener: vs. Sam Houston, Sept. 3.
Reality check: The Aggies won the offseason with the No. 1 recruiting class and coach Jimbo Fisher going off on his former boss, Saban. They are also a team relying heavily on sophomores and those five-star freshmen and one with no established starting quarterback or big-play receivers.
No. 7 Utah (10-4)
Opener: at Florida, Sept. 3.
Reality check: The Utes are coming off their first Pac-12 title and Rose Bowl appearance, and have enough pieces back to do it again. But repeating a magical season is difficult for the vast majority of programs that don’t regularly sign top-10 recruiting classes.
No. 8 Michigan (12-2)
Opener: vs. Colorado State, Sept. 3.
Reality check: The Wolverines broke through for coach Jim Harbaugh with a Big Ten title and victory over Ohio State in 2021. Now, with two new coordinators and a defense replacing three first-round draft picks, a repeat seems unlikely. An experienced offense and accommodating schedule gives Michigan a high floor.
No. 9 Oklahoma (11-2)
Opener: vs. UTEP, Sept. 3.
Reality check: New coach (Brent Venables), new quarterback (Dillon Gabriel) and more uncertainty in Norman than there has been in years. The Sooners have been one of the most reliable teams in the country for two decades, finishing unranked only twice. But turnover often comes with volatility.
