Low expectations rarely disappoint.
That’s not to say your favorite team will fail to live up to the promise that comes with landing a spot in The Associated Press preseason Top 25 college football poll presented by Regions Bank that was released Monday.
But numbers suggest it is best to sprinkle a healthy amount of caution on that optimism as you gear up for the 2022 season.
Lear year was especially volatile for the Top 25, with 14 teams that started the season ranked finishing unranked. From 2010-20, on average, 9.5 teams that appeared in the preseason Top 25 finished unranked — about 38% of the picks. During that time, the most was 12 in 2010.
In the preseason top 10 last year, three teams (Texas A&M, Iowa State and North Carolina) failed to make it into the final poll. That’s double the average (1.5) from 2010-2020.
Time to temper expectations for the preseason Top 25 this season — except for Alabama.
No. 1 Alabama (13-2 last season)
Opener: vs. Utah State, Sept. 3.
Reality check: The surest bet in sports is the Crimson Tide, which has only missed the playoff once. Alabama has not finished outside the top 10 since 2007, coach Nick Saban’s first season. No reason to think it’s happening this season.
No. 2 Ohio State (11-2)
Opener: vs. No. 5 Notre Dame, Sept. 3.
Reality check: The Buckeyes hired former Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to fix a defense that was badly exposed against their best opponents. QB C.J. Stroud, WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba and a potent offense probably make Ohio State flop-proof, though.
No. 3 Georgia (14-1)
Opener: vs. No. 11 Oregon in Atlanta, Sept. 3.
Reality check: Most of last season’s all-time great defense is now in the NFL. The Bulldogs are too talented to take a big step backward, but assuming Alabama-level consistency from any team is a lot to ask.
