Kansas west of I-35 continues to shrink. According to a study by Wichita State University’s Center for Economic Development and Business Research, there may be as many as four western Kansas counties with fewer than 1,000 residents by 2040.
The numbers seem to prove that Frank and Deborah Potter were on target in 1987 when they said that our semi-arid plains should be turned back to the buffalo. Their essay created a storm of indignation in Dodge and Topeka, too. Mike Hayden, who was governor at the time, was particularly upset and had uncomplimentary things to say about the Poppers’ scholarship.
But with each succeeding census, rural Kansas continues to fade. Seventy-seven of the state’s 105 counties — including Allen and our neighbors — lost population in the last decade. And, the government’s counters recorded, the population of 41 counties peaked in 1910 or earlier and 28 counties haven’t recorded a population increase from one census to the next since 1940.
The Wichita Center made two separate projections based on different factors. One considered birth and death rates and assumed that migration factors recorded in the last decade would continue. The second didn’t consider migration but looked only at what might happen as the population aged.
“By either method,” the study showed, “Greeley County, which had 1,235 people in the 2010 census, will be Kansas’ smallest county in 2040. Assuming no migration, the population will drop nearly 10 percent to 1,113. If migration patterns continue, it would drop nearly 64 percent, to 447 people, and be one of four Kansas counties — along with Wallace, Kiowa and Lane — with fewer than 1,000 people in 2040.”
THIS SOBERING assessment should come as no surprise — even to such dedicated Kansans as Mike Hayden and other community boosters across Kansas. At this point in our nation’s history, population growth depends on a combination of factors that simply don’t exist in most of rural America.
As Jeremy Hill, director of the Wichita Center, commented, this does not mean that some economic hubs in Kansas will not grow. Manufacturing might make a comeback if production costs continue to climb in China. Our low labor costs and strong work ethic could create revivals in cities such as Hutchinson, Hays, Great Bend, Dodge City and Pittsburg, he said.
Hill’s prediction could also be stretched to include more of southeast Kansas, including Coffeyville, Iola and Chanute, where there is a long history of manufacturing strength.
But, as Iola’s last three decades seem to show, the creation of industrial jobs does not automatically mean an increase in population.
Manufacturing in the U.S. today contributes about 10 percent to the nation’s economy. No one is predicting that percentage will increase substantially.
Growth occurs where the high wage workers in service industries are employed. Those businesses, by their very nature, create and strengthen population centers. In Kansas, those centers include Johnson County and the rest of Kansas City, Topeka, Wichita and the university towns.
To make these observations is not to dismiss the importance of rural America to the nation’s health and welfare. Agriculture is well into an economic revival that promises to be long-lasting and pervasive. Kansas should seize on that fact and find ways to capitalize on it. But let’s not fool ourselves. The days when there was a family on every 120 acres are not coming back. Agriculture will play an increasingly important role in the Kansas economy but cannot be expected to alter population trends.
THE LESSON for Iola to learn is that we should concentrate on making Iola better rather than bigger. We have a good start in that direction. Our new hospital, reinforced by a vibrant corps of health care professionals, will provide the best in health care and make Iola stronger. Our community college excels. The Bowlus Fine Arts Center is a regional standout. Our public schools deserve strong community support as the foundation of every new generation.
