Creative destruction is the process in which economic development sprouts from the destruction of some prior economic order: It’s painful for those being destroyed, but beneficial for the new order. It’s the story of innovation and progress that marks our age.
The targets for such upheaval are those businesses or institutions that are seen as costly and inefficient. One example on the horizon is our heralded system of higher education. Parents spend princely sums to send their children to college while there are those who suggest that an online education could serve the same purpose at a fraction of the cost.
In an article in a recent New York Times, columnist BiIl Keller writes about Stanford professor Sebastian Thrun who offers, for free, his “Introduction to Artificial Intelligence” course online. lt’s the same lecture his Stanford students receive, but who pay $50,000 a year in tuition. His online course has 180,000 students; Stanford’s enrollment is 7,000.
As Mr. Thrun was quoted as saying: “Literally, we can probably get the same quality of education I teach in class for about 1 to 2 percent of the cost.” He envisions a virtual university in which the world’s best professors offer their work to tens of thousands of students across the globe.
As Mr. Keller writes, that suggestion sends shivers of fear down the backs of university presidents and all those dependent on the status quo. The shivers that go down the backs of parents are closer to ecstasy. Who wouldn’t want their child to get a high quality education at a fraction of today’s cost? And, considering the fact that today’s tuition costs effectively shut out many students from even considering college, wouldn’t lowering the price barrier, thus attracting far more students, make us a better educated society?
Maybe, maybe not. There are intangibles to a university/college setting that go beyond price. There is community. There is the power of shared intelligence. There is the environment that promotes the thirst to learn.
But we are also a society that yields to technology almost habitually and the power to deliver a quality education online at minimal cost will eventually erode the bricks and mortar of our traditional college and university settings. Educational opportunity will become more egalitarian.
The message to our institutions of higher learning is that at some point they will no longer be able to depend on raising tuition levels to pay the bills.
Obviously this sort of upheaval is not on anyone’s short-term horizon. But think of it this way: If a school increases its tuition 5 percent a year — which is below the historical average — tuition doubles in 12 years. That’s far above the rate of inflation and it’s far above wage level increases. Will parents spend $40,000 to $100,000 a year for a child’s college education if their child can receive much the same education for $2,000? Can our institutions of higher learning reorient their strategies within that 12 years? Or will they resist, fighting to the last tenured professor arguing that what they have cannot be replicated online?
THERE IS MUCH to defend. Every state has colleges and universities that are considered central to their identities. They are important job-creators, as well. Those tuition payments represent thousands of salaries, which, in turn, sustain communities.
There are ways to stop the erosion. But ignoring the realities of low-cost online learning is not among them. What our schools must do is admit their inefficiencies and address them. It probably won’t work long term for all schools to offer the same degrees, and there will be instances in which some courses should be taught online for less. Our universities may need to reorient themselves to graduate-level courses, focusing on disciplines that have more definable outcomes.
Mr. Thrun understands there are challenges that must be met for his virtual university to become a reality, but he said, “If we can solve this. I think it will disrupt all of higher education.”
The Stanford professor is not alone in his belief. All college and university presidents understand that considerable change is in the offing. Those who ride the wave instead of drowning in it will be the ones who figure out better and more creative ways to make themselves indispensable.
by Emerson K. Lynn
St. Albans, (Vt.) Messenger
