Don’t take at face value that Donald Trump’s campaign train is unstoppable — as some who hang on immediacy proclaimed after South Carolina primary results poured in Saturday night.
Trump did win convincingly with 31.8 percent of the vote. Marco Rubio came in second by three-tenths of a percent over Ted Cruz. A statistic that has more than a little meaning is that Trump’s two closest — and more contentious — adversaries totaled 37.3 percent of the vote.
If Trump is to be the GOP nominee, he should hope that Rubio and Cruz remain in the thick of it, as they surely will barring a catastrophic series of primary elections. The more interesting result from the Palmetto State is that the Bush legacy crumbled, prompting Jeb Bush to scuttle his campaign.
How Bush’s exit plays out won’t be a huge factor as long as Cruz and Rubio remain entrenched. It’s a good bet next to none of Bush’s support will go to Trump, but if it is split among the also-rans, effect on Trump won’t be debilitating.
Long-time Republican faithful, particularly those who fancy themselves as kingmakers, are eager for the day when Cruz or Rubio will concede so all resources and support can be brought to bear to derail Trump.
If that does not occur as early as Super Tuesday, Trump truly may be en route to the nomination.
Hillary Clinton went far to assure herself the Democratic nomination by winning in Nevada Saturday night. If Trump claims the GOP nod, that would set up a presidential race that would be one of the most interesting in a century or more, albeit the Kennedy-Nixon face-off in 1960 — as events unfolded the next 15 years — was a jim-dandy. As was the Truman-Dewey race in 1948.
WHAT MAY be telling on Trump’s side is that exit polls and other analyses say his supporters — about a third of voting Republicans — have been rock-solid for some time and are not much influenced by current campaign rhetoric or events. That may haunt him in the weeks ahead. If it were to come down to Trump and one other, his support would need to expand or he’d be out the door.
In sum the most likely way Trump doesn’t win the nomination is if Rubio ousts Cruz and goes head-to-head. Trump and Cruz, in many ways alike, would be a toss-up.
The next couple of weeks should tell the story.
The good news: If Trump falters, we can be done with the tired talk about a U.S.-Mexico wall 10 feet tall, Muslim-bating and, at least to some degree, spending billions upon billions to make our military strong enough to destroy the world 100 times over rather than just 50.
— Bob Johnson
