Assuming the U.S. Senate confirms Sam Brownback’s nomination as ambassador at-large for religious freedom — a post he’s well-equipped to fill — dynamics of the 2018 gubernatorial race will be altered.
Brownback leaving Cedar Crest will put Lt. Gov. Colyer in the catbird seat, and enrich his support among those who pray at the altar of conservatism.
In most years that would make Colyer the odds-on favorite to succeed Brownback as elected chief executive of the state. Not this time around.
Kris Kobach, an ultra-conservative clone now residing in Topeka as Secretary of State, has announced he wants to be governor, and has adopted Trump’s outlandish (though successful in no small measure) means of campaigning on Twitter.
Both Kobach and Colyer subscribe to Arthur Laffer’s trickle-down approach to winning an economics gold star for Kansas, although that failed to materialize after the dreadful income tax cuts of 2012-13 and led to upheaval in the Legislature’s composure last November. Then, when the session convened, reason prevailed.
Kobach for years has contended that illegal voting is rampant — his is a solution looking for a problem — which has made voter registration and subsequent voting something of an ordeal in Kansas.
In early gubernatorial campaigning, he has gone so far as often to tweet profoundly incorrect predictions that income tax restoration would lead to economic disaster for rank-and-file Kansans. Re Trump: He has tweeted taxes would take food from Kansans’ tables and have the state’s poor and elderly deciding between necessities of life or paying income taxes.
Kobach also has a forum in having snuggled up to Trump in the president’s ill-founded declaration — as so many seem to be — that his loss of the popular vote could be laid to illegal voting.
Meanwhile, Colyer, a medical man of more than common note and treasure, has been a little coy in openly underpinning the trickle-down road to despair. Nonetheless, he has found purchase at Brownback’s side in support of the governor’s fiscal policies and apparently would favor ultra-conservate approaches to taxes and spending, if he were to have the wherewithal to decide.
The change in election dynamics is found in Col-yer and Kobach appealing to the same crowd of folks who squeeze dollars until the eagle screams. (Statisticians claim those populating the hard-core right wing of the Republican Party amounts to 20 percent — 30 percent at the very most.)
Colyer has not officially announced a run for the governorship, but likelihood is high. Nearly seven years in the wings would seem to be enough for him; no doubt having been promised support of Brownback and his advocates when he stepped down (as had been predicted, and as he is just a Senate vote away from doing) or completed his two four-year terms.
Kobach and Colyer appealing to the same base would seem to give an opening for a moderate Republican to seize the nomination. For that to occur, those who think they are so disposed must avoid being set upon by greed. If two or three or more toss their hats into the ring, the disadvantage of numbers could work to Kobach’s or Colyer’s favor.
Kobach basks in his current arena, and looks like a schoolboy who just had his first kiss when chumming with Trump in Washington. The exposure is something of an advantage when it comes to a campaign. (Trump rip-snorted through Kansas in last November’s election.)
Colyer has the financial wherewithal — remember he loaned Brownback’s campaign half a million dollars — to mount a fierce campaign, and his supporters also are well-heeled.
Then, there is the Democratic side of the equation. Paul Davis came close to unseating Brownback in 2014, and several of his political persuasion, including former Wichita mayor Carl Brewer who has announced, will put forth far more than cursory efforts.
The months ahead will be both interesting and exciting in Kansas as all the parts and pieces of the gubernatorial race unfold.
— Bob Johnson
