Almost 800 years ago, the Persian poet Saadi offered a useful warning:
Do you not see how the cornered cat
Will tear out the eyes of a leopard with its tiny claws?
In todays Middle East, Iran besieged by the more powerful United States, its economy in tatters, its military stretched thin is playing the role of the cornered cat.
We still dont know who fired the missiles that knocked much of Saudi Arabias oil infrastructure out of commission last weekend. But it appears likely that Iran supplied the weapons, and that whoever launched them was at least a client of Tehran. Either way, Irans fingerprints were present.
So its worth asking: Why would Iran take such a risk? What message were Tehrans rulers sending?
Of all the mysteries surrounding the attacks, thats the easiest to figure out: Dont tangle with a cornered cat. You may win, but you wont come away unscathed.
We have backed Iran into a corner by blocking the sale of their oil, John Limbert, a former U.S. diplomat in Iran, told me. Weve put them in a position where they have nothing to lose. We shouldnt have been surprised if they lashed out.
Four years ago, when Barack Obama was president, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program in exchange for an end to most international economic sanctions. But in 2018, Trump abandoned the agreement, imposed new sanctions, and threatened to crush Irans economy unless Ayatollah Ali Khamenei agreed to a long list of demands.
Irans response was predictable: It denounced the new sanctions as economic warfare, which was true. It tried to evade the oil embargo with European help. When Europe didnt deliver, Iran looked for other ways to strike back.
If the United States decides to block Irans oil, no oil will be exported from the Persian Gulf, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned last year.
In May and June, four oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were sabotaged in covert attacks that appeared to come from Iran. Those incidents aroused widespread condemnation; the safety of international shipping is a basic principle in foreign affairs.
The air attacks on Saudi oil facilities were more pointed and perhaps more deniable.
Yemens Houthi rebels, who have been under attack by Saudi Arabia for four years, claimed responsibility. The Houthis are supplied and supported by Iran, but they often act independently.
The 17 strikes made clear that if the United States and Iran go to war, Saudi Arabias surprisingly vulnerable energy infrastructure, which is crucial to the global economy, would be one of the first victims.
