We hate to bash our almost-neighbor, but Iowa’s claims that it sets the stage for presidential elections is a tad much.
And that’s without Monday night’s Democratic caucus snafu that has caused many to think it’s just not up to speed. By Tuesday evening, with the results still unknown, the candidates had moved their focus to the next battleground state of New Hampshire.
Technological glitches aside, the better reason to not put much stock in Iowa’s results is that it’s a poor representation of the country. Just like Kansas, it’s predominantly white, older, middle class and heavily dependent on agriculture. Individually, none of these things are inherent detractors, but when taken collectively they paint a picture that stands in contrast to the heavily populated states of Texas, Florida, New York and California. As such, voters’ interests and priorities in Iowa — or for that matter, the far-flung New Hampshire — likely don’t intersect as much with those of more diverse states.
Because Iowa has long held claim to the first major contest of an election year, it gets undue attention. For the better part of a year candidates have traipsed across the state wooing crowds large and small.
Like Kansas, Iowa uses the cumbersome caucus format, in which participants attend hours-long meetings where they physically separate into groups to endorse the candidates of their choice.
States that use the primary system, such as New Hampshire, use their state officials to run the process and the ballots are cast in private.
Increasingly, states are turning to the primary system because it gathers wider participation.
Just six states — Iowa, Nevada, Kansas, North Dakota, Wyoming and Maine — have hung on to the caucus system.
For Democrats, caucuses represent less than 5% of pledged delegates to its national convention.
HOLDING ON to its frontrunner status is a big deal to Iowa. The caucuses bring tens of millions of dollars to the state and untold media exposure.
More than ever, party leaders will be putting those expenditures under close scrutiny to see not only if they’re getting their money’s worth, but also whether Iowa’s results are indeed a bellwether of the national mood.
— Susan Lynn
