Republicans boasting about their great election mandate may want to hold the euphoria. As the final results trickle in from the late state of California, the GOP looks set to have the narrowest House majority in more than a century.
In the latest race to be called, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel lost her Orange County seat, while Rep. John Duarte now trails his Democratic challenger in his Fresno-area district. If Mr. Duarte loses, Republicans would hold nine of 52 House seats in the Golden State.
The Democratic gerrymander in California, plus those in New York (19-7 Democratic to GOP seats), Illinois (14-3) and Massachusetts (9-0), mean four states will deliver 85 of the Democratic total of 215 seats. The GOP could have as few as 220.
One message is that while voters rejected the Biden-Harris Administration, their support for Republicans is provisional.
The GOP did better in the Senate, picking up three seats. But they narrowly lost winnable seats in Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada despite fielding strong candidates.
Another message is that the GOP has about a year to get anything done. The party is likely to lose the House in 2026, if midterm history is any guide, and the partisan Senate map is challenging. The GOP had better pass legislation it wants in 2025 before Member attention turns to political survival in 2026.
This will require House Republicans in particular to stick together as they haven’t in years.
Matt Gaetz will be out of Congress, saints be praised, but other performance artists are still around to blow things up and blame everyone else. Perhaps Donald Trump can keep them in line behind Speaker Mike Johnson. But factionalism will mean the end of a functioning majority and guaranteed defeat in 2026.
— The Wall Street Journal
