They talked by phone for over two hours, but Vladimir Putin left Donald Trump with almost nothing to show for it — a slap in the face that only a man possessed of unbounded chutzpah could pretend was a win.
A week earlier, negotiators for America and Ukraine had agreed on a 30-day ceasefire in a conflict that has lasted for over three years. Mr. Trump had said that if Russia did not sign up he might hit it with tough new sanctions. In the event, he rolled over. Even Boris Johnson, a former British prime minister who admires Mr. Trump, declared that Putin is “laughing at us.”
Instead of an unconditional ceasefire, Mr. Putin proposed only that both sides stop striking each other’s energy infrastructure, an area where Ukraine has been landing some weighty blows on the invader. For anything further to happen, says the Russian government, Ukraine must accept a freeze on foreign military aid and an end to conscription and training, although Russia proposes no such restrictions on itself.
Mr. Putin also wants a solution to the “root causes” of the conflict, by which he really means an end to the existence of Ukraine as an independent country. Those are not the words of a man who is eager to compromise.
Optimists can extract a little comfort.
A pause on attacks on energy targets, agreed on in a call with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, is a small advance. Mr. Trump also suggested that nuclear power stations come under American ownership, for their protection, and said he would try to source some Patriot missiles from Europe.
In public he has refrained from endorsing Mr. Putin’s harsher demands for Ukraine.
The real danger lies ahead. Mr. Putin wants the American president to believe that, as statesmen, they have bigger fish to fry than squabbling over a forlorn place like Ukraine. So long as it does not get in the way, Russia and America can accomplish almost anything together.
Russia could help resolve crises in the Middle East and beyond, perhaps leaning on its friend Iran to forgo the bomb.
American investment in Russian businesses, such as exploring for gas in the Arctic, could steam ahead.
Sanctions would be lifted and Russia could rejoin the G7.
Imagine if Russia were detached from its “no-limits partnership” with China. “World war three,” an abiding worry of Mr. Trump’s, would have been averted.
All this is a fantasy designed to tempt Mr. Trump into giving Mr Putin what he wants in Ukraine in return for empty promises.
The reality is that Russia now depends more on China than it ever will on America, and will not be separated from it. Russia’s leverage over Iran is limited. Russia’s economy is smaller than Italy’s and subject to a despot’s whims, so business opportunities are slim.
On the contrary, if in pursuit of this chimera Mr. Trump eases the pressure the West has imposed on Russia, America will lose.
For a start, it will drive a further wedge between America and Europe, which will not follow Mr. Trump. Ukraine will be destabilized, posing risks to all of Europe.
