Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the largest ground offensive in Europe since the second world war, has unleashed not one but two struggles. The first is the military conflict for the freedom of Ukraine. The second is the broader geopolitical contest. Neither is going as the Russian president hoped when he launched his shameful and unprovoked attack. But both are in their earliest days.
The slow initial Russian advance and extraordinary scenes as artists pick up guns, bankers prepare Molotov cocktails and unarmed people confront tanks are testament to Ukrainians’ passionate determination. But they are out-gunned and outnumbered by a callous adversary that has already claimed the lives of children and other civilians and is pouring in more troops. The risks of a bloody, brutal war spreading beyond the borders are real. On Sunday, as President Volodymyr Zelinskyy agreed to a delegation meeting Russia for talks without preconditions, Mr. Putin put his country’s nuclear deterrent forces on high alert — underscoring his lack of interest in de-escalation, concerns about his state of mind and the fact that his failure could bring more suffering too. Russia’s nuclear status precluded western countries committing troops to back non-NATO member Ukraine. But that did not stop Mr. Putin raising it as a threat anyway.
His aggression has so far brought about a strengthening of the NATO presence he reviles and seems to be reinvigorating the alliance, as former Soviet states, and others in the region, watch Ukraine fearfully. It has drawn U.S. attention back from China, tying it more closely to Europe and vice-versa. Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, called this “a turning point in the history of our continent” in his landmark speech on Sunday. Germany is not only shipping weapons to Ukraine, in a U-turn, but vowing a massive hike in defense spending, to more than 2% of GDP. It has agreed to cut off the access of some Russian banks to the SWIFT payment system, with Hungary too signing on; Czech president Miloš Zeman, once vocally pro-Putin, had already executed a remarkable volte-face. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, has pledged to paralyze the assets of Russia’s central bank — potentially far more damaging. Like the sweeping controls on technology exports announced by the U.S. on Thursday, it could bring misery to Russians for a war that their president chose for them.
Even if fighting can be contained, stark economic consequences could soon translate into political instability. Nations across the Middle East and Africa fear soaring wheat prices. China, despite pursuing a Sino-Russian relationship with “no limits,” abstained rather than vetoed the UN security council resolution decrying the war. It wants to reshape, not destroy, the international order, but sees benefits in distraction for a U.S. increasingly hostile to Beijing and in growing multi-polarity. New Delhi will not endanger its long relationship with Moscow, especially given the latter’s closeness to both Beijing and Islamabad. Mr. Putin has also built up the relationship with Turkey, Brazil and others.
HIS REAL WIN would come if high energy prices batter the U.S. as well as Europe, damaging social and political cohesion, distracting the administration and winning another term for Donald Trump — shifting the country away from NATO and Europe. We may see a broader fracturing of the globalized economy, and increasing insularity: already, the pandemic and China’s rise are making politicians around the world contemplate increasing self-reliance and reduced dependence on long supply chains.
The struggles Mr. Putin has let loose are unfolding at an intense pace, yet will probably take years to settle. They are tests of both capabilities and resolve. Today, Ukraine is suffering. Tomorrow, repercussions could be felt around the globe.
