Since he withdrew on July 17 from a year-old agreement that allowed Ukraine to continue exporting its wheat and corn through the Black Sea, which his navy patrols, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has compounded the harm not only to his neighbor but also to millions of people across the world who rely on it for grain.
In fact, within hours, Russia unleashed drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s export infrastructure, including silos containing hundreds of tons of grain and vital port structures. Those attacks, renewed daily, were expanded Monday to hit a Ukrainian port on the Danube River that provided Kyiv an alternative outlet for grain exports via Europe. The effect of these Russian attacks is to make it harder for Ukraine to resume shipments if and when current or future diplomatic efforts to revive the agreement from which Moscow withdrew succeed. World grain prices rose 17 percent in eight days after Russia pulled out.
Mr. Putin’s ostensible position is that the grain deal, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, put too many restrictions on the export of its own goods, and that Moscow would immediately rejoin if its terms were renegotiated to the Kremlin’s liking.
In fact, within hours, Russia unleashed drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s export infrastructure, including silos containing hundreds of tons of grain and vital port structures. Those attacks, renewed daily, were expanded Monday to hit a Ukrainian port on the Danube River that provided Kyiv an alternative outlet for grain exports via Europe. The effect of these Russian attacks is to make it harder for Ukraine to resume shipments if and when current or future diplomatic efforts to revive the agreement from which Moscow withdrew succeed. World grain prices rose 17 percent in eight days after Russia pulled out.
Mr. Putin’s ostensible position is that the grain deal, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, put too many restrictions on the export of its own goods, and that Moscow would immediately rejoin if its terms were renegotiated to the Kremlin’s liking.
Ukraine is a major grain producer, accounting for one-tenth of the world’s wheat supply, 13 percent of its barley, 15 percent of its corn and half of its sunflower oil. Thus, Moscow’s latest actions raise the prospect of future global food insecurity even if bumper crops this year in other countries, including Brazil, might postpone acute shortages.
Though their death toll was blessedly modest, some of the latest Russian missile attacks constitute potential war crimes, including one on the historic city center of Odessa that badly damaged the monumental Transfiguration Cathedral. (Ukraine has also hit some sites of no apparent military use, but at a minuscule scale compared with Russia’s strikes.) Moscow’s targeting also represents a risky escalation in another sense: By attacking the Ukrainian grain stores on the Danube, Mr. Putin hit a target directly across the river and just a few hundred feet from Romania, a member of NATO. It is Moscow’s closest such strike to NATO territory since Mr. Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine 17 months ago.
Russia is cynically trying to blame the West for weaponizing food supplies, but Moscow’s own guilt is evident in the explosions and fires that have devastated Ukrainian grain stores and facilities, the product of Russian drone and missile strikes. That stark fact should not be lost on African leaders headed for Moscow later this week for a two-day summit with Mr. Putin.
A number of Africa’s 54 nations are especially at risk from Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain pact, because of their dependence on shipments from Ukraine. Mr. Putin on Monday offered what he calls “assurances” that, in the absence of Ukrainian shipments, Russia would make up for them by supplying grain either on commercial terms or, in some cases, for free to impoverished African countries. Mr. Putin says Russia will have a record grain harvest this year; if so, it might be able to make up for some limited quantities of Ukrainian grain, but it still would not have the volume required to replace them completely.
There can be no short-term fix to the extensive destruction Russia has wrought. Nonetheless, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan until now has retained a relationship with Mr. Putin, as well as influence as a NATO member who has kept open lines of communications with the Kremlin. He should exert whatever pressure he can to resuscitate the Black Sea grain deal.
A top U.S. Treasury Department official is planning to use a trip to Kenya and Somalia to offer some counter-programming in response to Mr. Putin’s blame-the-West summit with African officials. This is smart. African countries, which would suffer the brunt of Putin-generated food shortages, have real diplomatic leverage. Having alienated itself from the rest of Europe and much of the rest of the world, Russia needs all the friends it can get. African decision-makers should bear that in mind — and make it clear to Moscow that friends don’t let friends threaten the world food supply.
