The unsuccessful rebellion Saturday by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group of mercenaries will leave Vladimir Putin in power. But it underscores how much Mr. Putin’s failed attempt to conquer Ukraine has weakened Russia and sapped its military strength.
Sixteen months ago as he invaded Ukraine, Mr. Putin spoke confidently that Russia was embarking on a nationalist endeavor to protect itself from a Western threat that didn’t exist. He thought he could take Kyiv in days. On Saturday the not-so-strongman had to beseech his weakened military to protect the Kremlin from a home-grown challenge that he called “treason.” There were unconfirmed reports that his plane had fled Moscow.
Mr. Prigozhin later called off his troops from marching to Moscow after clashes that were likely to become bloody. In a deal brokered by the Belarus dictator and Putin ally, Alexander Lukashenko, Mr. Prigozhin will live in exile in Belarus. His Wagner Group’s forces won’t be prosecuted and those who didn’t take up arms against Moscow will be integrated into the military. Mr. Prigozhin began his rise to power as Mr. Putin’s caterer, and he will need a food taster in Minsk.
The 24-hour rebellion and retreat suggest Mr. Prigozhin lacked the broader support in the military or political class he hoped to inspire. This presumably ends his challenge to Mr. Putin’s 23-year rule. But it doesn’t end the larger frustration in Russia over a war the country hasn’t been able to win but Mr. Putin isn’t able to extricate from except at the cost of admitting defeat.
The rebellion was an irony of Mr. Putin’s own creation. The Kremlin promoted the Wagner Group as a brutal extension of Russian foreign policy. Its forces have acted as Mr. Putin’s ruthless agents in Syria and Africa in particular. They were among the fiercest fighters in Ukraine, taking horrific casualties in cities like Bakhmut.
But Mr. Prigozhin has openly expressed his frustration for weeks about those casualties and the Russian military’s failures in Ukraine, and he may have sensed that Mr. Putin would act against him and his troops. He acted first, and the impact of his retreat in the near term will be a blow to Mr. Putin’s ability to use the Wagner troops to project power abroad and meddle in other countries.
For Russia, the failed rebellion exposes the cracks in the facade of unity that Mr. Putin’s censorship has created. The extent of unhappiness among the elite, or siloviki, is hard for outsiders to see. But it has to exist as they watch Russia’s military power be squandered, its economy decline, and its global isolation grow.
After his initial failure to take Kyiv, Mr. Putin’s bet has been that he can out-wait Western support for Ukraine in a grinding battle of attrition. He still has the advantage in manpower, and the ability to throw green recruits into the meat-grinder. But the battle of attrition works both ways, even if the West can’t easily judge its impact inside Russia.
The moment would seem ripe for Ukraine to accelerate its summer offensive and retake more of its territory from the invaders. If the U.S. had provided more advanced weapons sooner, Ukraine would be better positioned to do so. President Biden conferred on Saturday with leaders of the G-7 and reiterated steadfast support for Ukraine.
This is the right message, but F-16 jets and other assets are still weeks or more from deployment. Congress would be undermining Ukraine at the worst moment if it refuses more military aid later this summer.
The failed coup also offers portents of trouble for the stability of Russia as the war grinds on. Mr. Putin’s goal in Ukraine has been to revive the Greater Russian empire, but instead he has pushed the Ukrainian people closer to the West. Kyiv may end the war as a near-member of NATO, as no less than Henry Kissinger now advises. And who knows if Mr. Putin can hold Russia itself together with its disparate ethnic groups and frustration at the casualties and sacrifice of war.
The goal of Western policy isn’t to break up what has always been an artificial empire. But the U.S. can’t control what happens, and there should be no effort to keep the Russian Federation together. The best result from this costly, tragic war would be a stronger Western alliance free of the post-Cold War illusions that Russia and China pose no threat and the welfare state can replace the will and money required for national defense.
