Even before America’s election, the world was unstable, with wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, among other places, and crackling tensions in the Pacific.
The next 10 weeks could bring new perils. Donald Trump wants to upend American foreign policy, but won’t take office until January 20.
The authority of Joe Biden’s lame-duck administration is shriveling. That creates a period of limbo, which America’s enemies could exploit, breaking rules and escalating conflicts to lock in gains.
Despite their differences, Mr. Biden’s and Mr. Trump’s teams must work together to deter them.
Mr. Trump’s early appointments suggest his foreign policy will indeed be radical.
Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, his picks for secretary of state and national security adviser, may sound like old-school conservatives, hawkish on China and Iran.
But they are where they are because they have adopted Trumpian positions: vocal loyalty to the leader, impatience with NATO and the war in Ukraine.
The new trade tsar may be Robert Lighthizer, an arch-protectionist itching to wage a new tariff war.
The Pentagon will be run by a novice keen to blow up the deep state.
Mr. Trump appears hungry to strike deals and take unconventional advice.
His staff have not yet signed up to rules on using secure communications, and are ignoring the norm that an incoming administration refrains from foreign dealings until it is in office.
On November 8 he called Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, with Elon Musk on the line.
Faced with this, countries have an incentive to create facts on the ground, fast, that will put them in a favorable position in January.
Some of those facts are welcome: free-loading American allies are suddenly boosting defense spending, for example.
Others may be disruptive. Vladimir Putin may escalate his offensive to try to grab more Ukrainian territory before any peace talks begin.
