The result of Mexico’s presidential election, which was announced Sunday, is no surprise. Yet what happens next is still a cliffhanger. Claudia Sheinbaum will become the country’s next president but it is far from clear whether she has the will or ability to break free of the policies or personal sway of her populist predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
The coming struggle will influence the fate of Mexico’s 126 million people but also has huge implications for migration, crime and trade in America, its giant northern neighbor.
The country’s first female, and Jewish, president differs starkly from her predecessor in some respects, even though they belong to the same party, Morena. A climate scientist with a PhD in environmental engineering, she took a technocratic approach to crime as mayor of Mexico city, and worked with the private sector. Mr. López Obrador, by contrast, governed by whim and bombast, berating businesspeople and indulging vested interests. The result was bad for Mexico.
Ms. Sheinbaum inherits three sets of problems where she needs to abandon Mr. López Obrador’s legacy. The first is the disorder that causes chaos inside Mexico and spills across its northern border. Mr. López Obrador did cooperate with the United States in attempts to control the rate of migrants trying to cross, but in many other respects he failed. Ms. Sheinbaum will need to reverse his permissive approach to Mexico’s gangs, which have sprawled. They not only terrorize Mexicans, but traffic migrants. They also cook fentanyl and smuggle it across the border, contributing to the 75,000 Americans killed by synthetic opioids last year.
Second, Ms. Sheinbaum must also break from her predecessor on trade and investment. At first glance Mexico has much to celebrate. Boosted by the North American free-trade deal signed under President Donald Trump, known as the USMCA, in 2023 Mexico overtook China to become the United States’ largest trade partner. Foreign direct investment into Mexico has risen, with it being a beneficiary of the diversification of supply chains away from China.
But zoom in and the story is one of a missed opportunity. Mexico could do far better. Fresh investment by multinationals who have not been active in Mexico before remains very low. Mr. López Obrador’s state-led energy strategy has resulted in insufficient, dirty and expensive power, putting off plenty of companies. Add in insecurity and a lack of rule of law and Mexico is less attractive than it could be.
Furthermore, a trade bust-up could be brewing with the United States, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House. Officials in Washington increasingly fret about Chinese companies moving to Mexico in order to bypass tariffs. That could come to a head in 2026 when the United States, Canada and Mexico have to review the USMCA deal. Ms. Sheinbaum will need to show she is welcoming to business but tough about Chinese firms bending USMCA rules and deft at defusing the looming U.S.-trade row. And she must tackle the issues deterring new investors.
The final mistake that Ms. Sheinbaum must reverse is Mr. López Obrador’s assault on democracy. He has weakened the institutions painstakingly built up since 2000, when presidential power changed hands for the first time. Ms. Sheinbaum should underline the independence of key institutions such as the electoral body and freedom-of-information agency, and refuse to advance mooted constitutional changes, including to elect judges. Mr. Trump is unlikely to care much about this, but Mr. Biden might, and investors do.
Ms. Sheinbaum’s to-do list is clear: tackle disorder, boost trade and investment and strengthen democracy. Yet is she really up to the task? One fear is that despite her technocratic credentials and style she is a captive of Mr. López Obrador’s agenda. Intellectually she is a nationalist and ideologue. She is his protégée and throughout her three-decade political career has hewed closely to him. During the campaign she spoke more about policy continuity and protecting his legacy than about her own proposals.
Even if Ms. Sheinbaum wants to reverse course, will she have the power to do so? Mr. López Obrador claims he is returning to “La Chingada,” his ranch (an interesting name: in Mexico sending someone to “la chingada” means to send someone to hell). But it is hard to imagine this obsessive, egomaniacal figure leaving the stage. Instead he may continue to hold sway over Morena, which looks to have won at least a simple majority in Congress and possibly the two-thirds majority needed for constitutional changes. Many politicians and officials across Mexico owe their position to him — as to a large extent does Ms. Sheinbaum herself.
External forces may push Ms. Sheinbaum in the right direction: she faces severe fiscal constraints that may force her to tame the size of the state. She cannot compete with Mr. López Obrador’s charisma and so may have to appeal to the public based on results. Still a huge test lies ahead: if you want to understand whether Mexico can fulfill its potential and whether America’s border will continue to be a source of instability, watch whether Ms. Sheinbaum can break free of the shadow of her mentor.
