Antarctica is the only continent unbloodied by war. For over six decades peace on the frozen land mass has been kept by the Antarctic Treaty, an agreement signed in 1959 at the height of the cold war that established it as a demilitarized scientific preserve.
But much like its ice sheet, the system governing Antarctica is in trouble as global warming opens up the possibility of mining virgin resources.
Seven countries, including Britain, Argentina, Australia and Norway, have territorial claims over the Antarctic. The carve-up of the continent reflects the world of the early 1900s: Britain, the naval hegemon at the time, and its former colonies grabbed almost 60%. Norway, whose explorers were first to the South Pole, took a bit less than 20%.
These claims do not reflect today’s geopolitical balance and are rejected by other powers such as China, which feels that it was squeezed out of the original scramble for Antarctica.
Nor are they recognized by America and Russia, which both reserve the right to make future claims.
The only thing standing between a free-for-all land grab, or even conflict, is the treaty. When it came into force in 1961 it froze all territorial claims and prohibited countries from making new ones. Yet this status quo is now being threatened by a new scramble for the Antarctic.
A growing number of powers are racing to establish or expand their presence on the continent.
This year Russia opened its tenth base and China its fifth, India is building a third and Turkey is planning its first. Iran has not signed the treaty but has said it wants an Antarctic base to claim its “property rights.”
Were this recent enthusiasm for polar exploration in the spirit of the treaty, which called for peaceful scientific investigation “in the interest of all mankind” and for a ban on any military activity, there would be much to celebrate.
Alas, in reality the treaty is in danger of disintegrating under the pressure of countries’ Antarctic ambitions.
One reason is that some countries are exploiting a loophole which allows “military personnel or equipment for scientific research” in order to militarize bases covertly. America’s Department of Defense alleged in 2022 that China was deploying dual-use technologies and facilities in Antarctica to improve the capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army.
A second reason to worry is that countries may be eyeing Antarctica’s potential vast deposits of oil, gas, copper and other minerals. 
Russia and China appear to be positioning themselves for future exploitation by building bases in resource-rich areas and conducting geological surveys under the pretext of research.
The treaty bans mining in a way that cannot easily be amended before 2048. By that date some mineral extraction there may be desirable, were it to provide resources needed for the green transition. But unless this takes place under an enforceable pact, a mining boom could cause ecological damage and conflict as countries seek to enforce their claims.
The best solution would be to modernize the treaty so as to create a new global agreement for managing Antarctica.
