The Senate skipped town for the holidays without a deal to aid Ukraine and bolster border security, but Members claim they can regroup and pass something in the New Year. Let’s hope they do, because failure would be a disaster for U.S. interests and security.
Senate leaders Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell all but held hands this week as they pledged to compromise enough to pass the supplemental funding bill. “While we’ve made important progress over the past week on border security,” Mr. Schumer said, it’s “going to take more time.” Senators appear to have made progress on fixing the incentives for asylum at the southern border. But a sticking point is how much to limit the President’s use of humanitarian parole to wave migrants into the U.S.
The details are worth getting right, and lawmakers think that Ukraine can hang on for another month while a deal is worked out. The Ukrainians are dug in and holding the line against Russian forays. The Russians are paying dearly for small advances. But Vladimir Putin hasn’t abandoned his original aims, and there’s a risk the Russians regain momentum.
U.S. intelligence suggests that Ukraine destroyed an astonishing 90% of Russia’s prewar army. But the Russians “have replaced those manpower losses and are ramping up their industrial base to make good their material losses at a rate much faster than their pre-war capacity had permitted,” the Institute for the Study of War noted recently.
It’s still possible the war ends in victory for Mr. Putin, with a Russian military that is larger and sharpened by combat experience. One of Mr. Biden’s biggest mistakes in Ukraine was a months-long delay in arming Kyiv for its spring offensive, which allowed Russia time to build hard defenses. Another pause would be a second unforced error.
The Senate’s holiday from history also means more delay before the U.S. gets moving on making the weapons that American forces need. Ukraine’s critics on the right have complained that helping Kyiv is burning through U.S. weapons stockpiles that may someday be needed in the Pacific or elsewhere. But that’s another reason to pass the supplemental.
Take Patriot air defenses. An Army general told Congress this month that Patriots are in “unprecedented operational demand.” The supplemental includes some $750 million to help expand Patriot interceptor production to about 650 missiles a year, from 550 now. Anyone worried about the U.S. running out of crucial munitions should support the package, not trash it as wasted on Europe.
The political risk in the New Year is a right-left political whipsaw against a deal. Progressives are trying to build grass-roots opposition to any immigration compromise, while Donald Trump is likely to denounce a compromise as a sellout because he wants to campaign against border chaos next year.
But migrant flows are reaching new and alarming highs, and both Mr. Biden and Republicans have a political stake in reducing that surge while helping Ukraine and Israel. Much is riding on doing so — for the U.S. and the world.
