The risk of conflict in the Western Pacific is growing as China raises the military stakes with a goal of dominating the region. The Biden Administration will have to keep its nerve, while preparing for a more aggressive response if the Chinese Communist Party keeps pushing.
Consider China’s actions in the past two weeks:
• On May 26 a Chinese fighter jet came within 400 yards of a U.S. reconnaissance plane flying in international air space above the South China Sea. The unprofessional intercept forced the U.S. plane to fly through the jet’s wake and was a clear attempt to intimidate.
• China’s defense officials snubbed a request by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the annual Singapore security conference this past weekend. Such meetings have become routine at the annual conference, and Mr. Austin criticized China’s opposition to military communication that could reduce misunderstanding.
• A Chinese naval ship this weekend came within 150 yards of a U.S. missile destroyer traversing the Taiwan Strait with a Canadian warship. The U.S. rightly views such patrols as essential to maintain the principle of freedom of navigation, but China claims the strait as its territorial waterway.
“The relevant countries are intentionally creating trouble in the Taiwan Strait, deliberately stirring up risks, and maliciously undermining regional peace and stability,” said Senior Colonel Shi Yi, the spokesman for China’s Eastern Theatre Command. The naval harassment is an attempt to scare the U.S. and its allies into ending naval transit in the strait.
All of this comes despite the Biden’s Administration beseeching Beijing for better relations. It also comes despite the recent press report that CIA Director William Burns made a secret visit to Beijing to smooth relations. The overtures aren’t making headway with President Xi Jinping.
Perhaps China is playing hardball so President Biden won’t impose new restrictions on U.S. investment in China. Such an executive order has been mooted but hasn’t been issued. A recent editorial in China Daily, a government propaganda organ, warned the U.S. not to issue it.
China also wants the U.S. to remove sanctions against defense minister Li Shangfu. He was sanctioned in 2018 over the purchase of combat aircraft and equipment from Russia’s main arms exporter. The military provocations may be China’s way of threatening the U.S. with what could happen if it continues sanctions and high-tech export controls.
No matter what Mr. Biden does, China’s clear military goal is to push the U.S. out of the Western Pacific, and it is getting bolder as its military power rapidly increases. Mr. Xi warned Chinese national-security officials last week that they should prepare for the “worst-case” scenario and “stormy seas.”
The risk of an accidental confrontation is growing, but so is the risk that China will perceive weakness if Mr. Biden responds to its provocations by appeasing Mr. Xi. A war in the Western Pacific would be a disaster for the world. But the Chinese war hawks need to understand that their military provocations make it harder for a U.S. Administration to pursue bilateral detente.
