President Joe Biden was greeted by a grateful Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a surprise trip to Kyiv on Monday. In an admirable show of solidarity, Biden declared America’s “unwavering commitment” to the besieged but brave Ukrainians just days before the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
“One year later, Kyiv stands,” Biden said. “Ukraine stands. And democracy stands.”
That outcome is due in no small part to the president himself, as well as bipartisan backing from most members of Congress and from the American people. They’ve been mostly united in aiding Ukraine in its existential fight against Russia’s illegal, immoral invasion and its “crimes against humanity,” as Vice President Kamala Harris rightly charged Saturday at the Munich Security Conference.
And it’s due in no small part to allies — of Ukraine, but also to the U.S., as NATO nations in particular also gave military, diplomatic and political support.
Russia’s bid to retake territory — and military momentum — will be bolstered by more troops and armaments from Iran, North Korea and potentially from China.
To date, China hasn’t supplied Russia with weapons, despite a pledge of partnership “without limits” between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping just weeks before the invasion. China does continue to supply political and diplomatic cover and a market for Russian energy exports. Sending arms would be a game changer, however, for the hot war in Ukraine and the increasingly cold one between China and the U.S. And perhaps for geopolitics writ large, since the Ukraine conflict would then indirectly involve the world’s three superpowers.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken directly and correctly confronted his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Munich about the specter of China arming Russia, warning that it would have “serious” (if not explicit) consequences for U.S.-China ties.
As it stands, it’s a “very strained relationship,” especially after the diplomatic damage from the U.S. shooting down an alleged Chinese spy balloon, Melinda Haring, a senior nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, told an editorial writer. “It’s a good thing that the Biden administration came out and said: ‘(T)his is a red line, do not sell or give (Russia) lethal equipment.’”
Blinken’s blunt warning and public airing of the administration’s concerns about China sending weapons is likely calculated to limit Beijing’s maneuverability. The administration is probably correct on the intelligence, as it was in warning the world that Russia wasn’t bluffing about a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While that didn’t deter the Kremlin, the U.S. and the world can hope the tactic has better success with Beijing.
Biden recalled asking Zelenskyy how he could help on the first night of the invasion. “Gather the leaders of the world,” Zelenskyy told Biden. “Ask them to support Ukraine.”
Biden did precisely that — rallying allies from the free world to come to Ukraine’s defense.
But Putin did his version of eliciting support, too, albeit from fellow dictators in Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran. (Tragically and disgracefully, several leaders from the developing world, forgetting their own countries’ liberation struggles, have remained neutral or have even tilted toward Moscow.)
Which side prevails in Ukraine will determine the geopolitical order in the near term and maybe even the long term. Americans should remain stalwart, steeling their elected representatives, especially the far-right Republicans hostile to the cause. Biden should not retreat from his pledge in Kyiv to back Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” And he should heed Zelenskyy’s call in Munich for speed in supplying arms “because it’s speed that life depends on.”
It’s not just Ukraine’s president pressing for faster action on deciding upon and delivering weapons requests. “There needs to be less applause and better supplies with arms,” Josep Borrell Fontelles, the top diplomat for the European Union, said in Munich. “Much more has to be done, and much quicker.”
Haring added that Western Europe “has finally woken up to the Russian threat and is taking it seriously. Eastern Europe has always understood the nature of it. I’m buoyed by the levels of support we continue to see. I’m buoyed by the very strong coalition that Putin did not expect.”
