Mitch McConnell created a Beltway stir Thursday when the press reported that the Senate GOP leader had cast doubt on a deal for border security and aid to Ukraine and Israel. Republicans said later the stories were overbaked, but Mr. McConnell is right about the choice Republicans face at a dangerous moment at home and abroad.
The Kentucky Republican was noting the reality that the deal faces political headwinds, and he is right to warn his colleagues that their window for a rare accomplishment is waning. Donald Trump is trying to torpedo any agreement, which could cause a GOP stampede away from a deal.
Public frustration over border failures is coming to a boil, and Mr. Trump is hoping to ride this back into the White House. Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson is down to a hairline majority in the House, and he lives under daily threat of defenestration by members of his own party. Some House Republicans are demanding nothing less than their own preferred border bill, known as H.R. 2. That measure commanded no Democratic support in the House, and it won’t miraculously win over the Democrats needed to clear the Senate.
Yet giving up on a border security bill would be a self-inflicted GOP wound. President Biden would claim, with cause, that Republicans want border chaos as an election issue rather than solving the problem. Voter anger may over time move from Mr. Biden to the GOP, and the public will have a point. Cynical is the only word that fits Republicans panning a border deal whose details aren’t even known.
The GOP would also abandon the best chance in years to fix asylum law and the parole loophole that Mr. Biden has exploited. Mr. Trump while President in 2018 complained that such dysfunctions precluded him from fully restoring order to the border.
“The biggest loophole drawing illegal aliens to our borders is the use of fraudulent or meritless asylum claims,” he said in a speech while noting “the only long-term solution to the crisis” is “for Congress to overcome open borders obstruction.”
In other words, Mr. Trump — or whoever put this speech in front of him — used to understand that the President needs Congress to fix the underlying incentives at the border. Yet now Mr. Trump is whipping up Republicans against legal changes that would put him in a strong position to stop the migrant surge if he manages to defeat Mr. Biden in November.
Mr. Trump may imagine he can strike his own border deal if he wins, but that’s highly unlikely. Democrats are willing to discuss asylum and parole changes now because President Biden and Democrats are suffering in the polls from the ugly scenes on television. If Mr. Trump returns to Washington, the left will revert to its factory settings of opposing all Trump priorities. Especially if Mr. Trump sabotages a bipartisan deal now.
Then there’s Ukraine, the U.S. friend in Europe now running out of ammunition to fight Vladimir Putin. Most Republicans still want to help Kyiv, no matter the decibel-level of Ukraine’s critics in Congress. But few voices these days are willing to stand up and say so because they fear Mr. Trump will trash them for it. A border-Ukraine deal offers some cover for a hard Ukraine vote, and a political and policy victory to tout at home.
The political alternatives are worse. If negotiations fail, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will eventually put the Ukraine bill up for another vote, and he should. If the GOP blocks the bill in either the Senate or the House, it will share responsibility for whatever happens next in Ukraine. Kyiv’s defeat will be signed with the party’s signature.
Mr. Trump may think a Ukraine defeat will help him, but don’t be so sure. As President he would inherit an emboldened Mr. Putin, with NATO allies in a panic, and adversaries around the world who think the U.S. really is in retreat. He won’t be able to solve that problem in 24 hours.
The House punted negotiations before Christmas on the theory that Ukraine could hang on until February without a fresh weapons infusion. Now another month has passed. The U.S. is careening into a moment of growing dangers around the world. Both a tighter border and a vote for a stable Europe are in the American interest. Better to act now than to fail and live with the consequences.
