I’m as guilty as anyone by assuming that if the Russians and Chinese simply overthrew their leaders, the prospect of a global conflict would be greatly reduced.
Totally wrong, political scientists say.
For one thing, it’s not going to happen so it’s irrelevant to wish for regime change, or worse, to actively encourage such action.
It’s better to accept Russia and China as they are, not as we prefer them to be, steadfast in our confidence that we can influence their decisions to respect the sanctity of life.
In the case of Russia, economic sanctions imposed by the United States and 36 other countries send the message that we remain unified in opposition to its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. To Vladimir Putin’s chagrin, Europe has never been so united nor its relations with the U.S. so strong.
And yes, the sanctions are working. The Russian economy is expected to contract by 4.5 percent by year’s end, according to the World Bank, and will only worsen in time. Industrial production is down 3 percent; retail trade by 10 percent, and automobile manufacturing by a whopping 64 percent due to lack of demand and a shortage of imported parts.
Economic and trade sanctions are a marathon, not a sprint, economists say, and are effectively eroding Russia’s capacity to wage war.
On the flip side, Americans are also learning that not everybody is as much a fan of democracy as we had hoped. Posed as a battle between democracy and authoritarianism, Ukraine’s fight for survival has not garnered the widespread support initially expected.
The biggest opt-out is China, no surprise, which signed a “no limits” friendship just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine.
More worrisome is the lack of commitment by Brazil and India.
Together, China and India now account for more than 40 percent of Russia’s oil exports, helping prop up its economy.
That said, trade agreements do not guarantee diplomatic stability, as Europe has learned all too well. Many believed Russia’s reliance on Western markets for its energy exports would, if not outright guarantee, at least provide a bulwark against threats to our world order. Putin’s grab for power has proved otherwise and if anything his invasion of Ukraine has shown that economic interdependence has put Germany and its neighbors in great peril.
Because of its increased global presence, China’s saber rattling against Taiwan, a U.S. ally, poses a similar challenge to our diplomatic efforts.
The U.S. is walking a fine line between greater boldness and greater caution as it deals with such adversaries.
The more we are aware of such challenges, the better prepared we are to influence their outcome.
