For over a century, Johnson County residents voted for Republican presidential candidates.
Even during periods of Democrat strength, including Franklin Roosevelt’s landslide victory in 1932 and Lyndon Johnson’s overwhelming triumph in 1964, the county stayed true to its Republican identity.
Woodward Wilson was the last Democrat to win Johnson County, achieving this feat way back in 1916.
But in 2020 Joe Biden put an end to the extraordinary run.
Two years later, nearly 60 percent of Johnson County voters supported Governor Kelly’s reelection bid and the county’s state House and Senate Democrat delegations increased considerably.
Democrats in fact now consider Johnson County a crucial battle ground in the 2024 elections.
So, we have arrived at an important crossroad.
Are Democrat gains in Johnson County a harbinger of things to come? Or are they a temporary break in an otherwise robust trend of Republican dominance?
The answer can be attributed to changes in demographics. Johnson County’s population is increasingly urban, college-educated, and wealthy – trends that favor the Democratic Party.
Moreover, Democrat-leaning industries – education, health care and scientific professionals – now account for roughly 40 percent of the county’s employment base.
Accordingly, the proportion of Johnson County voters registered as Democrats has increased from 20 percent in 2000 to 32 percent today.
But these changes cannot fully account for the shifts in voting behavior.
After all, the percentage of voters in Johnson County registered as Republican has remained above 40 percent.
What has changed is the Republican party. It has failed to offer candidates that appeal to moderates and those unaffiliated with either party.
In the 2018 gubernatorial race, for example, Laura Kelly prevailed over Kris Kobach by 5 points statewide.
