Twelve months ago, Americans could indulge in optimism. For a bright, shining moment, 2021 promised to be a year of recovery.
The first vaccines for COVID-19 were going into health workers’ arms. The economy was climbing out of recession. And after a bruising campaign, a new president promised a return to calm.
I shared the high hopes.
“Joe Biden … is 78 years old, and he has been a politician for more than 50 years. Those qualifications may be his hidden superpowers,” I wrote. “Improbable as it sounds, this politician of modest talents and limited eloquence may have exactly the gifts he needs to succeed.”
What could go wrong? Plenty.
The pandemic didn’t end. The economy boomed, but inflation surged. And while Biden restored a dose of normality to politics, voters didn’t feel it. By the end of the year, his approval rating dropped to 43%, the worst first-year report card for any recent president except, of course, Donald Trump.
We in the media are often accused of focusing on bad news. In 2021, I erred in the other direction: I was too optimistic.
This year-end column is my annual exercise in humility — a look back at what I got wrong.
Let’s start with the most disruptive problem of the year, the pandemic.
A year ago, vaccines looked like a good bet to bring COVID-19 under control.
Too many people were hesitating to get the shot — but no worries, I wrote: Governors were rolling out inducements including free beer and prizes to persuade them. “It turns out that what really motivates people is the chance to strike it rich,” I wrote.
Wrong. I didn’t expect that roughly 15% of adults, mostly white Republicans, would persist in refusing vaccination. Their resistance makes it harder for all of us to reach herd immunity — the point at which the virus stops spreading.
That’s one of several reasons Biden’s first year has been a disappointment: The pandemic is a long way from over.
A second reason is the economy’s fitful recovery. Corporate profits are up, unemployment is down, but prices are rising — and that affects everyone, not just those who land new jobs.
I underestimated the impact inflation would have on Biden’s standing and ability to move legislation through Congress. Optimist that I am, I looked for signs of progress.
