Ukraine surprised everyone — above all, probably, Vladimir Putin — with its determined resistance to Russia’s attack in February 2022. But now the war has ground down to a lethal stalemate. Ukraine cannot win this war of attrition on its own. Without outside help, a stalemate amounts to an eventual defeat for Ukraine.
Reflecting its admiration of the Ukrainians’ courage, as well as the stakes in this conflict, the West has responded with considerable aid.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the United States has contributed $77 billion in various combinations of military assistance, financial support and humanitarian aid. The European Union has contributed $85 billion, and its member states have made additional contributions: Germany ($20 billion), United Kingdom ($13 billion), Norway ($7 billion).
But with a population base a third the size of Russia’s, Ukraine is running short of troops, as indicated by reports last week of recruitment problems. Ammunition and other supplies are diminishing, as well. Perhaps more alarming, the West appears to be losing faith — and, maybe, interest — in Ukraine. On Dec. 15, Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orban vetoed a $54 billion European Union aid package for Ukraine.
In the United States, the Pew Research Center reports that about a third of Americans say that we’re already providing too much support for Ukraine; 48% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say the same.
And a $64 billion military and financial assistance package for Ukraine proposed by the Biden administration is being held up by Republicans who demand a compromise from the Democrats on border and immigration policy. The war in Ukraine is existential. A Russian victory will mean the end of an independent Ukraine and its aspirations toward the values of the West, including the rule of law, equality for women, free speech, a free press and tolerance.
In short, the prospects for a Ukrainian victory are bleak. It’s time to consider what a Ukrainian defeat will mean.
Let’s start small: The embodiment of Ukrainian courage and resolve is President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. On Feb. 25, 2022, as Russian columns were moving toward Kyiv, the AP reported that Zelenskyy, when offered a safe evacuation by the U.S. government, turned it down with this remark: “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”
The quotation isn’t strongly sourced, but Zelenskyy’s subsequent behavior validates the sentiment. When Russian troops close in on Kyiv a second time, it’s hard to imagine him retreating. He’s likely to be executed or sentenced to a lengthy prison term or, perhaps more likely, to die fighting.
Zelenskyy’s probable fate reflects the difference between the war between Ukraine and Russia and the war between Israel and Hamas. Despite its stated intentions, Hamas will never destroy Israel. Israel is too powerful in its own right, and the West will not permit its destruction.
The war in Ukraine, on the other hand, is existential. A Russian victory will mean the end of an independent Ukraine and its aspirations toward the values of the West. The difference between those values and the values that Russia and its ideological confederates — Iran, China, North Korea — have to offer are not merely theoretical:
Oversimplifying only slightly, on one side are democracy, the rule of law, equality for women, respect for LGBTQ+ citizens, free speech, a free press and tolerance.
On the other side are authoritarianism, a corrupt judiciary, oppression of women and minorities, censorship and kleptocracy.
One hopes that the profound differences between these two ways of living in the world could be resolved peacefully. But the conflict in Ukraine is a battle in a larger — and perhaps inevitable — war. This is not how it should be; unfortunately, history suggests that this is how it is.
