KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The head of the Russian private army Wagner has again broken with the Kremlin line on Ukraine, saying its goal of demilitarizing the country has backfired, acknowledging Russian troops have killed civilians and agreeing with Western estimates that he’s lost more than 20,000 men in the battle for Bakhmut.
Yevgeny Prigozhin said about half of those who died in the eastern Ukrainian city were Russian convicts recruited for the 15-month-old war. His figures stood in stark contrast to Moscow’s widely disputed claims from that just over 6,000 of its troops were killed throughout the war as of January. By comparison, official Soviet troop losses in the 1979-89 Afghanistan war were 15,000.
Ukraine hasn’t said how many of its soldiers have died since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
White House officials said Wednesday that Prigozhin’s comments were in line with their own estimates that Russian losses have accelerated. The White House estimated this month that Russian forces had suffered 100,000 casualties, including 20,000 killed in fighting, since December. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said then that about half of those killed were Wagner forces.
Analysts believe many of those killed in the nine-month fight for Bakhmut were Russian convicts with little military training.
Prigozhin — himself a former convict — has frequently criticized Russian military officials for not supplying his troops with enough ammunition. He also has questioned their tactics, commitment and leadership capabilities, and complained they haven’t sufficiently credited his forces for battlefield successes.
He’s highlighted his forces’ sacrifices and on Saturday touted what he claims is the capture of the city of Bakhmut.
In an interview published late Tuesday with Konstantin Dolgov, a pro-Kremlin political strategist, he went even further in his criticism — questioning some of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rationale for the war. Prigozhin said Russia’s goal of “demilitarizing” Ukraine has backfired because Kyiv’s military has become stronger with Western weapons and training.
In invading Ukraine, Putin also cited the need to increase Russia’s security and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Since the war began, Ukraine has applied to join NATO, and cross-border attacks into Russia itself have increased.
In the interview, Prigozhin also challenged Moscow’s vehement denials that Russian forces had killed civilians.
Prigozhin, a wealthy businessman with longtime links to Putin, is known for his bluster — often spiced with obscenities — and has previously made unverifiable claims from which he later backtracked.
Earlier this month, his media team published a video of him shouting, swearing and pointing at about 30 uniformed bodies on the ground, saying they were Wagner fighters who died in a single day. He claimed the Russian Defense Ministry had starved his men of ammunition, and he threatened to give up the fight for Bakhmut.
Prigozhin has frequently warned of a counteroffensive that Ukrainian officials have said they’re planning, and in Tuesday’s interview, he said that, given continued Western support, Kyiv’s forces might succeed in pushing Russian troops out of all territory they occupy in southern and eastern Ukraine, as well as annexed Crimea.
“A pessimistic scenario: the Ukrainians are given missiles, they prepare troops, of course they will continue their offensive, try to counterattack,” he said. “They will attack Crimea, they will try to blow up the Crimean bridge (to the Russian mainland), cut off (our) supply lines. Therefore we need to prepare for a hard war.”
Prigozhin’s admission of heavy losses appears to show the impact of Ukraine’s strategy. Ukrainian officials have said their goal in Bakhmut was to exhaust and deplete Russian forces, distract them from protecting territory they occupy elsewhere, and buy time for more Western weapons and ammunition supplies to arrive, and training to be completed.
