BEIJING (AP) Hong Kong retiree Lee Wai-man loves pork fresh from the market but eats a lot less now that the price has jumped as China struggles with a deadly swine disease that has sent shockwaves through global meat markets.
China produces and consumes two-thirds of the worlds pork, but output is plunging as Beijing destroys herds and blocks shipments to stop African swine fever. Importers are filling the gap by buying pork as far away as Europe, boosting prices by up to 40% and causing shortages in other markets.
Im a fresh-pork lover, but its too expensive, Lee, 87, said as she shopped at a Hong Kong market.
African swine fever doesnt harm humans but is fatal and spreads quickly among pigs. It was first reported in August in Chinas northeast. Since then, 1 million pigs have died and the disease has spread to 31 of Chinas 34 provinces, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.
The outbreaks scale is unprecedented, said Dirk Pfeiffer, a veterinary epidemiologist at the City University of Hong Kong.
This is probably the most complex animal disease we have ever had to deal with, Pfeiffer said.
Chinas shortfall is likely to be so severe it will match Europes annual pork output and exceed U.S. production by 30%, industry researchers say.
Everyone wants to import as much pork as possible, said industry analyst Angela Zhang of IQC Insights. She said the trend is likely to accelerate as Chinese production falls.
Thats a boost for farmers in Germany, Spain and other countries with healthy pigs but hard on families in Southeast Asia and other poor markets that rely on pork for protein.
This years Chinese pork output might fall by up to 35%, according to Rabobank, a Dutch bank.
Global supplies will be redirected to China, the banks researchers said in an April report. It said the unprecedented shift in trade will likely cause shortages in other markets.
Grocery shoppers in Germany, Japan and other high-income markets grumble at paying more for kielbasa or tonkatsu, but short supplies are a serious concern in places such as Cambodia where pork is the only meat many families can afford.
Cambodias live hog price jumped 37% in the past six months, according to Srun Pov, president of the Cambodia Livestock Raiser Association. He said the country is buying about 30% of its daily needs of 500-600 tons from Thailand.
Pork is important to us, said Chhe Pich as a butcher weighed her purchase in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh. Even though the current price is a bit high, I have to buy it to serve my family.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Chinas pork imports to soar 41% this year over 2018 to 2.2 million tons. Theres no immediate end in sight as evidence mounts that China will be unable to eradicate ASF in the near-term, it said in a recent report.
