WASHINGTON (TNS) In the head-snapping drama of the off-again, on-again U.S.-North Korea summit, the unpredictable lead actors, President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, hold center stage.
But off in the wings, China is controlling some of the key action and may help dictate the ending.
Until recently, Beijing seemed to share Washingtons growing worry about Pyongyangs increasingly powerful nuclear tests and ballistic missiles. Armed with a United Nations resolution, Chinese President Xi Jinping began squeezing his Communist little brother with the toughest economic sanctions ever.
But in March, when Trump instantly accepted Kims surprise invitation for a summit, the Chinese leader reversed course almost overnight raising alarms in Washington.
Instead of stepping up the pressure, Xi invited the young dictator to Beijing for his first foreign trip since he took power in 2011. Kim arrived on an armored train and was feted in the Great Hall of the People. The visit was widely seen as a rapprochement between two long-fractious allies.
If there was any doubt of the warming ties, Xi and Kim unexpectedly met again in northeast China in early May. Official photos showed them strolling shoulder to shoulder along a craggy beach. And reports indicated China was allowing cross-border trade to pick up again.
Trump later complained he was blindsided by the second meeting, saying it occurred all of a sudden out of nowhere, and warned that Xi could be influencing Kim to raise his demands. Trump has met or spoken to Xi multiple times, and Kim also may have sought Xis advice on negotiating with the strong-willed, mercurial president.
With the Trump-Kim summit back on track for June 12 in Singapore, Chinas growing role is now a wild card in the dizzying diplomacy about denuclearization on the Korean peninsula.
Analysts offer several reasons for Xis policy reversal and what it means for the United States.
In the short term, they say, Chinas leaders feared they might be left on the sidelines while North Koreas seemingly impetuous leader struck some kind of deal with Trump that would change the strategic status quo on the Chinese border.
That could bolster Washington in the contentious trade disputes that have roiled relations between U.S. and China, the worlds two largest economies.
But more worrisome for U.S. policy makers, China seems to have concluded that any potential nuclear disarmament deal would require some U.S. concessions and those are likely to weaken Americas military posture on the Korean peninsula and throughout Asia.
One potential outcome of the Singapore summit, for example, would be an agreement to formally end the Korean War, which sputtered to a close in 1953 with a ceasefire. Trump already has hinted he wants to bring some U.S. troops home, citing the cost of overseas deployments, and an end to the conflict might hasten that decision.
Anything that reduces U.S. influence and power in the western Pacific removing some or all of the 30,000 or so U.S. military personnel from South Korea, for example, or pulling out U.S. antimissile systems from the region would immeasurably strengthen Chinas hand there.
Xi already appears to have achieved Beijings short-term goal. In snuggling up to Kim, however grudgingly, Xi has reasserted Chinas indispensable role in negotiating any change to the major geopolitical currents in Asia.
