The stakes run high for 130,000-some low-income Kansans who stand to gain from expanding Medicaid coverage and for the political players who will decide the contentious issue.
Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly made expansion a centerpiece of the election that put her in office. Two Republican leaders Senate President Susan Wagle and Senate Majority Leader Jim Denning could see their elevation to higher office also turn on the issue.
Signing an expansion bill into law after six years contentious debate would be a big win for the Democratic governor. Getting there will test her skills at matching wits with the Republican-controlled Legislature.
Thats a four-year victory, said Washburn University political scientist Bob Beatty. You can run for reelection on that.
So its not surprising, he said, that Republican leaders work overtime to prevent that or at least delay it by a year.
Republicans are clearly a little bit afraid of handing such a huge victory to her right off the bat, Beatty said.
Thats particularly true for Wagle. She stands among several Republicans eyeing the U.S. Senate held by Pat Roberts, who has announced he wont seek reelection in 2020.
Wagle has emerged as Kellys main antagonist, fighting her on issues ranging from taxes to Medicaid expansion and quickly jumping on her administrations missteps, including its insufficient vetting of an appeals court nominee.
When the governor called a news conference Tuesday to chastise Senate leaders for blocking consideration of a Medicaid expansion bill that passed the House two weeks ago like a similar measure two years earlier that fell to a Republican governors veto Wagle responded within minutes.
The governor just called for the Senate to pass a bill that (Vermont senator and liberal presidential candidate) Bernie Sanders, a socialist, endorsed, Wagle said. Thats not going to happen in the Kansas Senate.
Wagles all-out opposition to Kellys agenda may not be a productive legislative strategy, Beatty said, but its a smart political move.
She doesnt have to win, he said. But she has to be seen as fighting. Thats what Republican primary voters are going to want in the U.S. Senate.
Denning faces different stakes. The Overland Park Republican represents a Senate district thats transitioning politically. Kelly won it in her race against conservative Republican Kris Kobach and independent Greg Orman.
Kelly didnt hesitate to point out that fact at a recent town hall meeting in the district that she said Denning politely declined to attend.
Conventional political wisdom suggests that Denning cant oppose Kelly at every turn if he wants to survive the next election and succeed Wagle as Senate president.
