As Congress looks to cut billions of dollars in federal spending over the next decade, states are anxiously awaiting how current proposed cuts to Medicaid and other programs may impact their own budgets and benefits their residents receive.
The Republican-controlled Congress is asking committees to slash their budgets over the next decade by $1.5 trillion and pay for a $4.5 trillion extension of tax cuts endorsed by President Donald Trump in 2017. Those tax cuts largely benefit corporations and wealthy Americans.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said in an analysis that to cut the amount of spending the Trump administration is requesting, cuts to Medicaid and Medicare are inevitable.
UNDER THE plan proposed by the House of Representatives, Medicaid, the joint federal and state program that helps with medical costs for people whose income and resources are very limited, could be subject to $880 billion in cuts over the next 10 years.
And the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides food benefits to low-income families, would see about $230 billion in cuts over the same period.
The plan could result in a $95 billion loss in federal funding for states in 2026 alone, according to a new report from the Commonwealth Fund. And as the details are ironed out, the report shows that Missouri and Kansas have plenty on the line when it comes to their federal funding and potential economic slowdown in their states.
Missouri could see a $2 billion reduction in federal funding across Medicaid and SNAP over the next decade, according to the report. Kansas, which has not expanded Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act and receives less federal money as a result, stands to lose $485 million in federal funds over the same period.
Researchers at the Commonwealth Fund, a group that studies health care access, also found that the downstream economic effects of potential cuts could mean more than a $2.4 billion hit in Missouri’s gross domestic product in 2026 alone. In Kansas, the cuts could amount to $556 million in economic losses through ripple effects such as cuts to jobs in hospitals, pharmacies, grocery stores, agriculture and more.
“If a nurse in a hospital loses her job because of a cutback, then that means she can’t afford to do things like pay her rent or pay her grocery bills,” said Leighton Ku, one of the study’s lead researchers and the director of the Center for Health Policy Research at George Washington University. “So there are repercussions that ripple through the rest of the economy.”
The study found that if $880 billion in federal Medicaid funding were to go away, each state would see an 11.8% reduction in federal spending.
FOR SNAP, states could see a 20.6% reduction in federal SNAP dollars.
In Missouri, direct health care jobs are estimated to see the biggest losses, with an estimated 11,300 jobs cut as a result of the change in spending. Combined with other potential job loss as a result of Medicaid cuts, nearly 22,000 would be lost.
Another 2,400 Missouri jobs are estimated to be lost as a result of spending changes to the SNAP program.
The report estimates that between cuts to Medicaid and SNAP in Missouri, the end result could mean a $2.4 billion decrease in the state’s GDP and a $175 million reduction in state and local tax revenue.
IT’S A DIFFERENT picture in Kansas, where state lawmakers haven’t expanded Medicaid and fewer people are part of the program. The analysis estimates that the state could lose about $485 million in federal funds across cuts to Medicaid and SNAP.
Kansas could lose about 2,700 in direct health care jobs and another 2,900 food industry or other jobs.
