MIAMI Miamians are already used to stifling heat waves that leave them sprinting from air-conditioned cars to air-conditioned buildings or flocking to the beach to cool off. Or so they think.
But if a new report on climate-change induced global warming is right, residents could feel the heat a lot more by the middle of the century. Scientists from the climate advocacy group Union of Concerned Scientists are predicting that the city could go from a couple weeks a year that feel like 100 degrees to nearly four months of scorching hot days, with the rest of Florida not far behind.
High temperatures are linked to all kinds of health problems, from heart and lung conditions to exacerbating mental health issues. In South Florida, almost a dozen elderly people elderly people died when the air conditioning went out after Hurricane Irma. Soaring thermometer readings have already forced some outdoor workers to shift their labor earlier or later in the day.
Florida tops the charts on so many different metrics, said Erika Spanger-Siegfried, lead climate analyst for the group. The southeast region leads the nation, and Florida is the state within that region that will be most affected.
Spanger-Sigfried and her team analyzed historical heat records from 1970 to 2000 to come up with historical averages for cities, counties, states and regions in the lower 48 states, and used 18 different climate models to project temperatures into the future. What they found: with no action to cut carbon emissions, temperatures could soar to harmful, even deadly, levels by mid-century.
High temperatures are historically most common in the southwest, where it got so hot in 2017 that airplanes couldnt take off.
But its not temperature alone that matters for physical well-being. As most Floridians already know, its not the heat its the humidity.
Our bodies can cope with high temperatures if we can sweat, said Spanger-Siegfried. But as the humidity rises, it gets harder for our body to cool.
The heat index is a combination of temperature and humidity that results in a feels like temperature.
Right now, there are about 25 days a year that feel like theyre above 100 degrees in Florida, like the heatwave last month. Without action to change emissions, scientists estimate there will be 105 of those 100 degree plus days a year in Florida in a few decades, around 2036 to 2065. By late century, that number could climb to 141 days.
Predictions for Miami-Dade County are worse. Instead of the statewide average of 25 days where it feels like 100 degrees, Miami-Dade already has 41 and by the middle of the century, that could be 134. Thats more than any other county in the state.
The researchers created an interactive tool to show how hot it might get in specific cities and counties depending on how much climate change is slowed, or if its not slowed at all.
More hot days spells trouble for outdoor workers, who dont always have strict guidelines for breaks. More than half of agricultural workers in Homestead surveyed by the organization WeCount! last year reported they werent allowed to rest in the shade, and 69% said they had experienced symptoms of heat-related illness.
It doesnt help that the natural instinct when the temperatures rise is to crank up the AC, which Spanger-Siegfried pointed out consumes even more electricity and burns even more fuel.
If we use dirty sources of fuel to keep our indoor areas cool, were making our outdoor areas warmer, she said.
