Former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke compared the national economy to a Looney Tunes character: magically floating in the air for a moment after running off a cliff before inevitably plummeting in 2020.
About half of Americas chief financial officers predict a recession before the end of this year, according to a Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey.
In Kansas, Johnson County Community College recently raised tuition, citing concerns about a possible downturn.
While some economists are increasingly worried about the prospect of a new national recession, others say Kansas aerospace industry could cushion the state from much of the hurt.
This is looking, if not completely recession-proof, then, well, in pretty great shape, said Richard Aboulafia, an economist with the Teal Group, a company of analysts who follow aviation trends.
The Great Recession took a significant toll on Kansas aviation industry. Wichita lost nearly 11,000 aviation jobs; Hawker Beechcraft filed for bankruptcy in 2012.
In the past aviation, rightly or wrongly, has gotten a lot of credit for our boom and bust, said Gary Plummer, president and CEO of the Wichita Regional Chamber of Commerce. Its a significant shift … that the industry is being attributed with helping.
During the recession, the state suffered due to its reliance on the manufacture and sale of small and mid-sized business jets. The segments were hit especially hard during the recession.
Whats different this time around is that Kansas is now working on the type of planes the aviation industry craves.
Boeings 737 continues to see large global orders. That has created a significant backlog.
The fuselages for the 737 are made by Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita. The company recently announced it would hire 1,400 new workers to catch up with the orders.
Economists say that a recession isnt going to change that global demand assuming the recession is as shallow as economists expect.
While aviation is only part of the Kansas economy, it is an important component. Aerospace contributes more than $5 billion to the Kansas economy. About a quarter of the states exports come from the industry.
Perhaps the only industry more important is agriculture. Farmers have struggled in recent years. Yet agriculture tends to outperform other industries during a recession, further insulating Kansas from economic pains.
Everybody has to consume food, said economist Steven Cassou with Kansas State University. Even if there is a recession theres still that demand.
