CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — Donald Trump’s effort to march to the Republican presidential nomination faces perhaps its greatest challenge on Tuesday when voters in New Hampshire hold the first-in-the-nation primary.
With Ron DeSantis ending his 2024 campaign and endorsing Trump on Sunday, the primary becomes the first one-on-one matchup between Trump and Nikki Haley.
The former president enters the contest emboldened by his record-setting performance in last week’s Iowa caucuses. But New Hampshire has a more moderate political tradition and primary rules that allow unaffiliated voters to participate in the race. Trump-backed MAGA candidates have struggled here in recent years.
Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and onetime South Carolina governor, is hoping to capitalize on those vulnerabilities, especially now that she is the only major candidate left in the GOP primary aiming to defeat Trump outright. DeSantis, even before dropping out altogether, had effectively surrendered New Hampshire to focus instead on South Carolina’s Feb. 24 primary. But he did have supporters in New Hampshire who now must decide what to do.
A Haley victory would usher in a more competitive phase of a primary that Trump has so far dominated. A Trump win, however, could create a sense of inevitability that he would become the GOP nominee for the third consecutive time.
Don’t forget Democrats have a primary, too. President Joe Biden is not on the ballot, having made South Carolina the first formal stop on the Democratic primary calendar. But New Hampshire is sticking to tradition and hosting its own Democratic primary anyway.
Here’s what we’re watching for on Tuesday:
CAN TRUMP BE STOPPED?
If Haley can’t beat him in New Hampshire, she may not be able to stop him anywhere else, even in her home state of South Carolina.
The one-on-one fight between Trump and Haley is exactly what Trump’s Republican critics have been clamoring for. Haley appears competitive and enjoys support among moderate voters and independents. She’s also earned the backing of popular New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.
Still, Trump remains the favorite.
Sensing a knock-out blow, the former president has called in his growing army of prominent supporters in recent days to help demonstrate his strength. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, Trump’s former opponent, endorsed Trump at a New Hampshire rally over the weekend. New York Rep. Elise Stefanik and Ohio Sen. JD Vance stumped for Trump on Saturday before an appearance from South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster.
A significant number of New Hampshire Republicans insist they will never support Trump. And without a competitive Democratic primary in the way, many left-leaning unaffiliated voters could decide to support Haley. But that doesn’t change the fact that Republican primary elections are typically decided by Republicans, and Trump’s grip on the base appears stronger than ever.
Still, New Hampshire loves a comeback story (just ask Bill Clinton), so we wouldn’t rule anything out.
WHERE DO DESANTIS SUPPORTERS GO?
