Bob Hemesath has spent his entire life on his Northeast Iowa farm, raising corn and hogs alongside his brother. His business depends on open global markets and stable trade agreements.
But under Donald Trump’s second term, that stability has once again been disrupted with the president’s push for higher tariffs on some of the nation’s most important trading partners.
“Anytime that a tariff is put on goods that I sell or export to those countries, that’s going to put me at a disadvantage to the marketplace,” Hemesath said.
A FEW WEEKS after returning to the White House, Trump threatened a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports. He also imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, prompting retaliatory tariffs from Beijing and escalating tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Trump most recently imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.
Mexico, Canada and China account for more than 40% of total U.S. trade, valued at more than $2 trillion. As these trade relations become increasingly strained, economic uncertainty has deepened in rural America, leaving farmers bracing for a financial blow similar to what occurred during Trump’s first-term trade war.
“It certainly does increase the level of uncertainty,” said Ernie Goss, an economist at Creighton University in Omaha, Nebraska, referring to the Trump administration’s tariff policies. “This uncertainty manifests itself in areas such as purchasing farmland and agriculture equipment.”
Mexico is the United States’ largest agricultural trading partner in terms of total exports and imports, with Canada following closely behind, according to the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Agricultural trade with Mexico and Canada is crucial for U.S. farmers, particularly in the exchange of grains and meat products.
Meanwhile, China is also one of the United States’ top agricultural trade partners, especially as an importer of soybeans.
Trump has claimed any financial harm will be short-lived.
But Hemesath, who is also president of Farmers for Free Trade, a national non-profit that mobilizes farmers to support trade agreements that expand export opportunities, said trade wars have a lasting impact.
“Those other countries are going to start looking elsewhere for those products, and if they can find them, that’s a market that I lose as I as a farmer. And that directly affects my bottom line,” Hemesath, a fifth-generation farmer, told Investigate Midwest during a phone interview.
During Trump’s first-term trade war, China imported fewer soybeans from the United States as it turned to other countries, including Brazil, which emerged as China’s primary soybean supplier. Much of that business didn’t return to American farmers once the trade war ended.
“During the previous U.S.-China trade war, China learned a valuable lesson: diversifying supply chains to reduce dependency on U.S. agriculture,” Julien Chaisse, a trade expert and professor at the City University of Hong Kong, said in an email to Investigate Midwest. “Brazil and Argentina were already beneficiaries, and this move will deepen China’s commitment to alternative suppliers.”
“Beijing does not treat agricultural imports as purely economic transactions but as strategic tools,” Chaisse added. “This shift is unlikely to be reversed, even if tariffs are later lifted.”
Retaliatory tariffs from other countries can also increase costs for American farmers.
