MIAMI — The peak of hurricane season arrives Saturday — and the Atlantic is bustling with activity.
The National Hurricane Center on Friday is watching Hurricane Earl, which is forecast to turn into a powerful post-tropical cyclone in the Atlantic on Saturday.
Earl’s swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across portions of the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland through the weekend, the hurricane center said. A tropical storm warning for Bermuda was discontinued on Friday.
Forecasters are also watching a new disturbance that is forecast to move off the coast of Africa by early next week. There are two other disturbances in the Atlantic, one of which whose window to form into a “short-lived tropical cyclone” is closing.
None is a threat to Florida.
Here’s the forecast:
Hurricane Earl
Hurricane Earl was about 255 miles east-northeast of Bermuda Friday morning. The Category 2 storm is rushing quickly northeast at 22 mph and is forecast to go a little faster later Friday before slowing considerably over the weekend in the Atlantic.
Data from NOAA hurricane hunters shows that Earl’s maximum sustained winds increased early Friday to near 100 mph with higher gusts. Its wind field also grew overnight, with hurricane-force winds extending up to 80 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 230 miles.
Forecasters expect Earl’s strength will fluctuate though it should retain its Category 2 status for most of Friday. The forecast no longer shows it nearing Category 3-level strength.
“Whether Earl’s recent satellite degradation is another temporary hiccup or the start of a weakening trend as it undergoes extratropical transition over the next 24 h isn’t yet clear, but either way the intensity guidance is now in good agreement that little or no intensification is expected going forward,” the hurricane center said in its 11 a.m. advisory.
“Earl is expected to complete its transition to a powerful hurricane-force extratropical low on Saturday and then gradually weaken through early Monday,” the hurricane center said.
Three disturbances
The disturbance forecasters thought could potentially turn into the Atlantic’s next tropical storm is continuing to get battered by strong upper-level winds, reducing its chances of formation Friday morning.
The system, about 1100 miles east of the Leeward Islands, has a well-defined center of circulation but the strong upper-level winds “have caused most of the disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low to be displaced well to its northeast,” the hurricane center said in its Friday morning advisory. “The strong upper-level winds are forecast to persist for the next several days and it is becoming less likely that a short-lived tropical storm will form.”
Forecasters reduced its formation chances from 40% to 30% through the next two to five days as it moves quickly west-northwest over the central Atlantic. If it were to strengthen into a tropical storm, it would be named Fiona.
The other two disturbances forecasters are watching — one that is several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands and another that is in the coast of Africa — have no chance of formation within the next 48 hours and a low 20% chance of formation through the next five days.
