On the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center has raised the chances a system that formed in the Gulf of Mexico could grow into a tropical storm or depression.
In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said the odds of formation for an area of low pressure with showers and thunderstorms now over the northeastern gulf have increased since Wednesday with better organization overnight.
“Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form over that time span as the system meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico,” NHC forecasters said “However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southward, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico.”
The NHC gives it a 50% chance of becoming tropical in the next two days, and 50% in the next seven.
Earlier projections expected the system to move across Florida this weekend and into the Atlantic, but the latest forecast from the National Weather Service projects the low pressure area to drift south toward Cuba and weaken before eventually moving east out into the Atlantic early next week.
The shift doesn’t mean rain chances are gone for Central Florida. The NWS in Melbourne updated its forecast for Thursday morning saying the mix of the low pressure with normal daytime heating will still bring the chance for 2-3 inches of rain with 5-6 inches and localized flooding in some areas through Saturday, with bigger rain chances in the western inland part of the Florida peninsula. Gusts of 40-50 mph and some hail chance is possible, the NWS said.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will fly toward the system later today.
A January system that was deemed to have been an unnamed subtropical storm was technically the first storm of the 2023 season so if this system forms it could become either Tropical Depression Two or Tropical Storm Arlene.
The National Oceania and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal forecast released in May projects 2023 to be an average season with between 12 and 17 named storms. Of those, five to nine would grow into hurricanes, and of those one to three would reach major hurricane strength of 111 mph sustained winds or greater.
The hurricane seasons runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
