Hurricane Helene has formed in the waters between western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula and now has its sights on Florida’s Gulf coast, where forecasters are warning of major and widespread impacts.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Helene will be a major hurricane, possibly Category 3 or higher, by the time it makes landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region Thursday evening.
Because Helene is expected to be a wide storm, the entire coast of Florida is under various warnings. Impacts will be felt over a large area of the state east of the storm’s center.
A hurricane warning is in effect on the west coast from north of Tampa Bay to Mexico Beach on the Panhandle.
A tropical storm warning was extended Wednesday morning to include the entire coast of the state, including Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties in South Florida. The warning reaches well up the coast, into South Carolina.
The threat of destructive storm surges is widespread. “There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend,” said the hurricane center said.
“The highest inundation of greater than 10 ft is expected along the Florida Big Bend coast. Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.”
Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders are in place for at least 13 counties, the Florida Division of Emergency Management said in a post on X.
There is the possibility of 5-8 feet of surge hitting the Tampa area, if peak surge were to hit at high tide, the National Hurricane Center estimated. The greatest threat of surge was potentially 10-15 feet in the area near the Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka.
In addition to Tampa, storm surge warnings were in effect from Indian Pass in the Panhandle south to Charlotte Harbor and Flamingo (3-5 feet) and coastal Collier County.
A flood watch is also in effect for Collier, Hendry and Glades counties for Wednesday and Thursday.
“It’s important that people don’t get wedded to these cones,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis. “You can be out of the cone and still have major impacts. And the farther east this goes, it may not have as much runway for intensification, but it brings in the entire west coast of Florida for potential significant storm surge.”
The large width of the storm is a concern.
“Of equal importance to the forecast intensity is Helene’s forecast size,” the hurricane center said. “Helene’s forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of major hurricane size at similar latitudes, and therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side.”
