WASHINGTON (AP) — In some ways, Iowa’s Republican caucuses were practically over before they even started, with Donald Trump cultivating a deep network of support over three presidential runs.
Seven in 10 Iowans who caucused for Trump on Monday night said they have known all along that they would support the man who has remade the Republican Party through his “Make America Great Again” political movement. Trump was carried to victory by the majority of caucusgoers who say they back it, a sign of his growing influence in a state that denied him a victory eight years ago.
His chief challengers — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy — tried to carve out their own coalitions. But none could match the demographic edges enjoyed by Trump in this year’s first presidential contest, according to the findings from AP VoteCast. Ramaswamy suspended his campaign after a disappointing finish in the caucuses.
Trump performed strongly in small town and rural communities, where about 6 in 10 caucusgoers said they live. He won with white evangelical Christians, who made up nearly half of the caucusgoers. He excelled among those without a college degree: 62% of caucusgoers in that group chose Trump.
If there is a reason for pause in his Iowa success, it is that many of the must-win states in the November general election are more urban, more suburban, more racially diverse and have slightly more college graduates as a percentage of their adult population than does Iowa.
AP VoteCast is a survey of more than 1,500 voters who said they planned to take part in the caucuses. The survey is conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
HOW TRUMP WON IN IOWA
The 77-year-old Trump entered Iowa as the caucus favorite, and AP VoteCast showed why he has become a juggernaut among GOP voters in the state.
The demographics favored him, but so did the issues that people prioritized: immigration and the economy.
Among the roughly 4 in 10 Iowa caucusgoers who identified immigration as the most important issue for the nation, 59% backed Trump. Those participating in the caucuses agreed with his hard-line stance on finding ways to limit immigration.
About 9 in 10 backed building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, with about 7 in 10 expressing strong support for the idea first championed by Trump during his 2016 campaign. The vast majority, three-quarters, said immigrants do more to hurt than help the United States, an indication there is a desire to reduce overall immigration levels.
About one-third of caucusgoers prioritized the economy. Of those who selected it as their top issue, 53% supported Trump.
DESANTIS’ DISTANT SECOND
The key for DeSantis earning a second-place finish was the backing of conservatives, who favored him over Haley — even though they liked Trump most of all. About 7 in 10 Iowans who caucused defined themselves as conservatives. About two-thirds of the caucusgoers favored a ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, and DeSantis performed slightly better than Haley among that group.
Haley finished narrowly behind DeSantis. She was the top candidate of the most anti-Trump Republicans in the state, including those who said the former president did something illegal in one of the pending criminal cases against him. She was also the top choice for Republican caucusgoers who voted for Biden in the 2020 election: two-thirds of them supported Haley. But she faced headwinds in a state that largely saw itself as loyal to Trump and his agenda.
