By the end of the century, the U.S. population will be declining without substantial immigration, older adults will outnumber children and white, non-Hispanic, residents will account for less than 50% of the population, according to projections released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The population projections offer a glimpse of what the nation may look like at the turn of the next century, though a forecast decades into the future can’t predict the unexpected like a global pandemic.
The projections can help the U.S. prepare for change, from anticipating the demands of health care for seniors to providing insight into the number of schools that need to be built over the coming decades, said Paul Ong, a public affairs professor at UCLA.
“As most demographers realize, population projection is not an inevitable destiny, just a glimpse into a possible future,” Ong said. “’Seeing’ that possibility also opens up opportunities for action.”
Population changes due to births and deaths, which are more predictable, and immigration, more uncertain. Because of that, the Census Bureau offers three different projections through 2100 based on high, medium and low immigration.
Under the low-immigration scenario, the U.S. population shrinks to 319 million people by 2100, from the current population of 333 million residents. It grows to 365 million people at the end of the century under the medium immigration scenario and to 435 million residents with high immigration. In each immigration scenario, the country is on track to become older and more diverse.
Americans of college age are already part of a majority-minority cohort.
Aliana Mediratta, a 20-year-old student at Washington University in St. Louis welcomes a future with a more diverse population and believes immigration “is great for our society and our economy.”
But that optimism is tempered by existential worries that things seem to be getting worse, including climate change and gun violence.
“I feel like I have to be optimistic about the future, since if I’m pessimistic, it disables me from doing things that I want to do, that are hard, but morally right to do,” Mediratta said.
Here’s a look at how the U.S. population is expected to change through 2100, using the medium immigration scenario.
2020s
By 2029, older adults will outnumber children, with 71 million U.S. residents aged 65 and older and 69 million residents under age 18.
The numeric superiority of seniors will mean fewer workers. Combined with children, they’ll represent 40% of the population. Only around 60% of the population that is working age — between 18 and 64 — will be paying the bulk of taxes for Social Security and Medicare.
