After a quiet run, the tropics have gotten the attention of the National Hurricane Center again as it keeps its eyes on two systems that could form in the Atlantic and become the season’s next tropical depression or storm.
The NHC’s upped the chances on Monday for one of the two since it first began reporting on the duo Sunday night.
That one is a tropical wave forecast to move off the west coast of Africa midweek into the eastern tropical Atlantic.
“Some slow development of this system will be possible late this week while the system moves gradually west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern Atlantic,” the NHC stated.
It gives the system a 30% chance to form in the next seven days.
The other system is an area of low pressure that could develop in a few days in the central tropical Atlantic.
“Some slow development of this system is also possible while it moves west-northwestward through the end of the week,” the NHC said.
It gives the system a 20% chance to form in the next seven days.
If either system were to spin up into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Emily.
So far the season has had four named storms, with just one, Hurricane Don, becoming a Category 1 hurricane. The tropics have been quiet since the NHC stopped tracking Don on July 24.
The hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but the traditional height of the hurricane season runs from mid-August into mid-October with September 10 identified by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as the peak of the season.
The NOAA last week increased its prediction that the 2023 season will be “above-normal” from what had been 30% to 60% citing the record-breaking sea surface temperatures of the Atlantic basin.
and noting the expected effects of the El Niño weather pattern had not brought the wind shear that could thwart tropical production.
The NHC has also shifted its prediction now calling for 14-21 named storms, of which 6-11 would grow to hurricane strength, and two to five of those becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.
