The number of job openings has declined sharply in every state since 2022, better aligning the numbers of unfilled jobs and people seeking work.
Nationally, for the first time since before the pandemic, the number of job openings and unemployed people is roughly in balance: a little more than one opening per person looking for work, according to a Stateline analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. At the height of the labor shortage in 2022, there were two job openings per job seeker. As of April, the ratio was down to 1.2 openings per person.
But the proportion of workers to jobs ranges widely from state to state. In California, where layoffs in tech and the film industry have unsettled the job market, there is less than one opening per unemployed person. In North Dakota, where a brain drain has left a shortage of skilled and educated workers, there are almost three openings per unemployed person.
The federal government defines a job opening as an available position that an employer wants to fill within a month.
California, one of the few states where unemployment is above 5% and unemployed people outnumber job openings, has replaced Mississippi as the state with the highest unemployment rate. Washington state and Nevada also have less than one job opening per unemployed person.
The epicenter of the decline in job openings has been California’s Bay Area, including the San Francisco and Silicon Valley metro areas. California ended up losing nearly all the tech jobs it gained during a pandemic boom fueled by online work and shopping.
In North Dakota, by contrast, there are still almost three job openings for every unemployed person, though that’s down from more than four openings in some months of 2022. Before the pandemic, there were 2.7 openings for every job seeker.
North Dakota suffers from a lack of skilled workers to fill open jobs, and many who could fill them move to nearby cities, such as Minneapolis, looking for a more urban lifestyle and more desirable jobs, said Thomas Krumel, a professor at North Dakota State University who studies labor demand.
North Dakota’s oil boom peaked a decade ago but it left a lasting legacy of high wages and cost of living, he added.
“The positions that employers find most difficult to fill do not require a four-year college degree. Skilled trades, healthcare support and technical jobs often face shortages,” Krumel wrote in an email.
Unemployment nationwide was at 4% in May, higher than the 3.5% before the pandemic but still near historic lows. The only states with unemployment rates above 5% were California (5.3%) and Nevada (5.1%), along with the District of Columbia (5.2%). The lowest rates were in North Dakota and South Dakota (2%), and Vermont (2.1%).
A return to a pre-pandemic labor market is a good sign, said Nick Bunker, economic research director at Indeed Hiring Lab.
“It was a strong labor market, robust and seemingly sustainable,” Bunker said.
However, states with the largest declines in job openings could be in for future trouble.
“We’ve hit the spot now where if employers do continue to pull back on openings, the probability of the unemployment rate rising more sharply becomes higher,” Bunker said.
