With no immediate end in sight, the abnormally early drought may take as much as $50 million from Allen County’s economy.
“The past four years we’ve averaged about 30,000 acres of corn in the county,” said Doug Strickler, one of the crop’s major producers. “If the drought means a 100-bushel an acre yield loss, that would be a $20 million revenue loss.”
Loss from soybeans, with about 55,000 acres and possible 30-bushel an acre yield decrease, is another $25 million.
The National Weather Bureau’s 10-day forecast is for high 90s to better than 100 degrees each day and only a minimal chance of rain one day.
Most row crop farmers purchase insurance on what they plant, but primarily that “covers just cost of production,” Strickler said.
He figures that at $300 an acre to raise corn to harvest, $150 for soybeans.
High commodity prices – $6 a bushel for corn, $13 for beans – add to the frustration.
“This year’s drought is kind of like rubbing salt in the wound,” he continued. “In the past, when corn was $2 and beans $5, it didn’t hurt as much.
“I hope it’s better than I think it’s going to be, and it’s still a little hard to tell,” about the heat and drought’s effects, Strickler said. “It could be worse than last year,” when the county averaged 33 bushels on corn.
“Rain in a couple of days – which I know isn’t likely – and some of the corn could bounce back. If it’s 10 days before a rain, with the heat we’re having, it’s going to be too late.”
THE DROUGHT has cut into the corn crop from two directions.
Not only has plant growth been stymied by the dry spell, stress brought on by the heat affected pollination and left many ears short and partially filled with kernels.
“The ideal temperature for pollination is 86 degrees,” Strickler observed. “When it’s 100 degrees, it curtails the process.”
Pollination occurs when tassels form and silk starts to come from fledgling ears. Each string of silk represents a kernel. Pollen from a tassel drops onto the silks and leads to formation of the kernel.
When farmers began planting corn in early April, they were about a month ahead of schedule, which prompted visions of bumper crops with it well on the road to maturity when June arrived. June is the month in Kansas when rainfall totals traditionally are highest.
But, the drought also came a month early.
Iola has had just 1.44 inches of rain this month, nearly 4 inches less than normal.
“If the rain had come as it usually does, and the hot and dry weather when it usually does in July and early August, the corn would have been made,” Strickler said.
If there is any “good” corn, it may be short-season varieties planted early, Strickler said.
“Some of it has pretty good ears, and we’ve had a few spotty rains that have helped,” he said.
Another upside is nights haven’t been extremely hot.
CORN ISN’T alone in wilting before the drought’s onslaught.
“Soybeans are pretty resilient and are holding on,” Strickler noted, “but they’ve kinda slipped into dormancy. They aren’t growing. Some are going back a little; I’ve noticed leaves dropping off at the bottoms.”
Bean plant should be, by historical measure, two feet or taller by the end of June. Few are a foot tall.
“They should be flowering now, too,” Strickler said. “They’ve held on for a long time, but if we don’t get rain soon, the vines aren’t going to have any size to them, which means there won’t be many blooms and few pods.
“The hay also isn’t good and heat is hard on animals,” he said.
“The drought’s hard on everything.”
