Everyday consumers and the dairy industry have not seen broad changes to the milk on store shelves or the broader markets four months after the first cattle tested positive for bird flu.
While individual farmers may have lost out on revenue, the broader economy has been spared because the outbreaks of avian influenza have been fairly contained and not widespread, according to academics who study dairy markets and industry groups.
In all, 160 cow herds in 13 U.S. states have reported positive tests, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. There are 24,094 dairy farms nationwide, according to the 2022 U.S. Census of Agriculture.
“Rather fortunately for the industry and for consumers, we haven’t seen major impacts yet,” said Chuck Nicholson, a University of Wisconsin-Madison agricultural economics professor. “But, with any kind of epidemiological situation the future can be quite uncertain.”
Since late March when tests first confirmed bird flu in dairy cattle, milk prices have held steady and will likely tick up slowly, Nicholson said. While there is scant data on dairy consumer trends, there is little evidence to suggest that bird flu has spooked them either.
“It’s not been something that has been affecting the consumer marketplace, and we haven’t seen signs of it,” said Alan Bjerga, a spokesperson for the National Milk Producers Federation. “Honestly, if there were to be a panic, you would think that it would have happened by now.”
As of May, the latest available month, the industry price of milk — or what farmers are paid — stood at $22 per 100 pounds, USDA data shows.
If avian flu spreads more dramatically across the country, however, consumers and the dairy industry could notice, Nicholson said.
When cows test positive for bird flu, their milk is not put on the market for a couple weeks. Lactating cows sick with the virus can get a fever and produce a thickened, discolored milk. Generally within 30 days, most animals recover but their milk production may not return to normal right away, said Mark Ernst, Illinois’ State Veterinarian.
Under normal market circumstances, a decrease of just a couple percentage points of milk production in the U.S. can boost the industry price of milk. In turn, some of those hikes are typically passed onto consumers.
Whether that happens depends on the future trends of the virus, Nicholson said.
“Nothing to say that that will happen — but we don’t have anything yet to say that it won’t happen,” he said. “So I think it really is kind of a stay tuned situation.”
Several Midwestern states have ramped up testing for the virus. Iowa and Michigan have opted for more requirements than others.
The USDA recently announced the federal agency will pay dairy farmers with infected cattle 90% of the value of the milk lost, somewhat similar to crop insurance.
In Illinois, the state department of agriculture recently said it will require testing for lactating dairy cattle for exhibitions — like county and state fairs — to avoid spreading bird flu.
