A rapt crowd of nearly 200, mostly farmers or those so associated, hung onto every word Monday night when Dr. Barry Flinchbaugh, legendary agricultural economist at KSU, gave his two cents on the 2018 farm bill.
Southwind Extension Service and Allen County banks sponsored the event.
Flinchbaugh titled his presentation “Ag Policy under the New Administration and New Congress,” and couldn’t resist a couple of subtitles, “Age of Uncertainty” and “Age of Trump/Twitter.”
“I’ve been predicting ag policy for years,” he declared. “Never more difficult than under this president and Congress.”
Flinchbaugh, 73, said in the administration of Donald Trump, “consistency, philosophy, logic, stability, moderation — none of these words are in the lexicon of the Age of Twitter.” No industry is more dependent on the global economy than agriculture — “It’s a global economy whether Trump and the isolationists in Congress like it or not.”
Flinchbaugh has been involved with agricultural policy for 50 years. His prediction? “It’s in for one hell of a ride.”
“In 1966, politicians in both parties put farmers first and partisan politics second,” he said. “Today, it is partisan politics first and farmers second.”
An example:
The 1996 farm bill was drafted in a bipartisan — and Kansan — manner. Dan Glickman, a Democrat, was Secretary of Agriculture; Congressman Pat Roberts, a Republican now in the Senate, chaired the House Agriculture Committee, and Republican Bob Dole was majority leader in the Senate.
“I had the ear of all three,” Flinchbaugh said. “Why? Because as an ag policy Extension specialist at a Land Grant university, I stayed the hell out of partisan politics. A must if you are going to educate rather than promote.”
And the future farm bill?
“If I knew I would tell you. I do not, but I am going to tell you anyway!”
“OBVIOUSLY, the 2016 election was very crucial to agriculture. Rural America gave Trump 75 percent of their vote. That’s why he won the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
“Now,” he said, “we should hold his feet to the fire.” The new ag secretary is Sonny Perdue, former governor of Georgia, which could give rise to an old North-South consideration, corn vs. cotton. But, Flinchbaugh noted, Perdue “is a veterinarian, a businessman, he’s smart and he knows agriculture.”
The onus of developing the new farm bill will fall to Congress, not with the White House.
“It’s a revenue-based plan, but likely with more support — if you believe the leader of Trump’s farm team,” came a coy observation.
Net farm income has declined “in three short years,” from $136 billion in 2013 to $90 billion in 2016. During the same time government payments to shore up farm income have increased just $1 billion, to $10 billion. “That’s not nearly enough,” and “the new bill is as important as any in years.” Meanwhile, the overall economy is growing … slowly, 3.5 percent last quarter — the highest in two years — and 2 percent for fiscal year 2016.
Meanwhile ag exports are trailing off. “Trump and the Congress are facing a very fragile agriculture” Flinchbaugh said.
