Nov. 3’s general election held little suspense for voters in Allen County. No incumbents were unseated, no races too close to call (unless you count the coin flip necessary to break a two-vote tie between Rodney Edson and Lonnie Larson for Iola Township Trustee).
Indeed, Allen County Democratic Chair Mike Bruner, who lost in his attempt to unseat incumbent state senator Caryn Tyson, was also unsurprised by the results. They were “kind of what I expected. No big surprises,” said Bruner. “We looked at these elections in Allen County as a party-building exercise.”
Jim Talkington, who chairs Allen County’s Republican Party, remarked, “We’ve always had a strong Republican party here in Allen County.” He agrees that, “it was the presidential side of the equation” that got people out to vote. “Also the Marshall/Bollier race was pretty contested. The Democrats came in with a lot of money, and Republicans responded.”
Putting the lack of upsets aside, several points warrant mention.
First, despite a record number of Americans saying the outcome of this election mattered, turnout in Allen County hardly budged from the last presidential election. In 2016, 66.45% of Allen County voters cast their ballot. In 2020, that number crept up to 66.91%, a far cry from the record turnout seen in other parts of the country.
Second, multiple signs point to Allen County becoming more conservative over the last several election cycles. Since taking office in 2016, Trump has gained support in Allen County. In 2016, 66% of voters cast their ballots for Trump. In 2020, that percentage increased to 71%.
That’s something Bruner recognized, saying, “I think Democrats in Kansas underestimated how powerful Trump would be for Republicans in this election. In a presidential election year, it’s always going to be harder for us to get votes, but Democrats in Kansas probably underestimated the effect it’d have on down ballot races.”
Talkington understands the rise in Trump support as a response to “the weakness of the Democratic candidate. Biden was a particularly flawed candidate.”
Indeed, despite winning the election, Biden was unable to match the support Obama enjoyed in Allen County eight years ago. In 2012, Barack Obama earned 35% of the county’s vote. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 26.01%. This year, Biden received virtually the same amount of support–26.56%. That, in spite of the fact that Biden received roughly 120,000 more votes than Clinton across Kansas.
The Democratic Party is gaining ground in Kansas, but its growth is anchored in metro areas. Rural areas like Allen County, on the other hand, seem to be getting more and more conservative.
In a state where Republicans outnumber them by 2-1 in many counties, Democrats have found ways to win in Kansas, but the path is narrow. Governor Kelly offers an interesting case study. In the 2018 gubernatorial race, Kobach got just above half of the vote, at 51%, while Laura Kelly received 40% of the vote in Allen County, significantly above what Barbara Bollier, who ran a similar campaign as a moderate Democrat, received. Bollier garnered just 29% of the votes in the country.
Three observations arise: Roger Marshall had much higher approval rankings than Kobach. Marshall also likely benefited from highly motivated Trump voters heading to the polls. And lastly, Bollier was not well known outside of Johnson County, and one wonders how her campaign, which limited events to small, socially-distanced groups (when Marshall’s campaign didn’t), would have fared in the absence of a pandemic.
“I think Democrats not doing in-person events really hurt us a lot,” said Bruner. “It may not have made a difference in outcome, but I do think it would have made many races closer.”
When assessing the success of local Republicans, Talkington pointed to several issues that motivated Allen County Republicans. “Over the last couple of months, there’s been a cry of defunding the military and the police,” he said. “I don’t think anyone around here is interested in doing that. Nobody here locally, at least in my opinion, is interested in moving forward socialism, or having their taxes raised, removing the electoral college, or taking away your guns.”
For his part, Bruner asserts that “the average voter is not that uncomfortable with what Democrats support.
